Gordian Knots

Brad Feld lists out questions from a friend which we should all answer:

* What were the significant events of the year?

* What were my accomplishments?

* What trips did I take?

* Who was I closest to?

* What significant reading did I do?

* What gave me joy?

* In what ways did I grow?

* What personal gifts did I use to serve this year?

* What did I learn this year?

* What in my life is dying (literally or figuratively)?

* What in my life is rising (literally or figuratively)?

* What are my goals for the next year?”

An old saying claims that the rich get richer. But recent advances in online investing now allow people of modest means to tap into investment options traditionally reserved for the wealthy.

Separately managed accounts — customized portfolios based on models by one or more managers — are hot investment vehicles with a Rolls Royce connotation. Their minimum investment runs from a hundred grand to half a million, with hefty fees paid to the investment adviser and managers. Less affluent investors have watched this luxury ride wistfully, from a distance.

Now they can bum a ride. Foliofn, a Vienna, Virginia, company that sped the automation of portfolio management, is forming alliances to offer consumer products with the benefits of separately managed accounts.

Unlike mutual funds, the underlying assets allocated in SMA models are owned by the individual investor. The investor can decide to refuse a manager’s buys and sells, adjusting as desired for personal tax strategies or feelings about particular companies.

Investors can go online to rebalance the basket, buying and selling stocks without paying commissions, only a monthly or annual membership fee. Current annual fees are $200 for one basket, $100 for additional ones.

Earlier this year, Techdirt that China had told a father he could not name his kid “@”, mainly because there was no good way to pronounce it. Well, it appears that China really doesn’t like people naming their kids after internet related things. Not only is the “@” out, but so is naming your kid with a .com. A father wanted to name his son Zhao.com, but the registry office has rejected the name. Perhaps he should have just gone straight to a

domain registrar instead. Of course, here in the US we have no such restrictions, leading to things like kids named 2.0.

Life on the Robotic Farm: “The Swirling Brain sent a link to a CNN.com article that talks about the benefits of automation on the modern farm. The farmer sits in the air conditioned cab of his self-driving, GPS-guided tractor, checking stock prices and surfing the web. The tractor knows where it’s going, and can continue in the dark. It even knows precisely where it left off yesterday so it can start in the right place today. The system also keeps maps of the fields to make sure this years plantings don’t go over old root systems.”

Thinking Robotics for the Real World: “IST has published a new article on the Bayesian Inspired Brain and Artefacts project (BIBA), which is part of NEURO-iT, a European Union Future and Emerging Technologies Initiative. The goal of BIBA is to produce artefacts that are capable of using Bayesian probabilistic logic to ‘understand and implement life-like behavioral coordination’. To state their goal in more understandable terms, they intend to make robots that can act on incomplete data just like humans and other animals can. To this end they have constructed BIBA Bot, a robot equipped with cameras, a SICK LMS and IR sensors. BIBA Bot will initially demonstrate insect-level intelligence similar to that of an ant but researcher hope to eventually achieve mammal-level intelligence equal to that of a dog.”

Building Robots to Learn About Humans: “A new MIT Technology Review article presents the controversial views of Mitsuo Kawato, director of the ATR Computational Neuroscience Laboratories in Kyoto, Japan. Kawato believes that an important reason for building robots is to learn about humans. This is a common view among AI researchers where one camp wants to build machine intelligence while another views AI simply as a tool to simulate and learn about human intelligence. Kawato sees robotics as a way to simulate and learn about human neural structure and motor control. Kawato’s research is currently focused on a robot called DB2, a 30 DOF humanoid. DB stands for Dynamic Brain, an attempt at using current neurbiological theories to construct a robot brain.”

Harvard Business Online: “You’ve got all the trappings of success: an impressive career, lovely home, handsome family, and prominent position in your community. So why do you still feel that something’s missing? Why does the bar seem to ratchet higher every time you score another achievement? And why does your life feel less fulfilling the harder you struggle to uphold professional and personal obligations? Like many managers, you may need to focus more on managing yourself: carving out a place in the work world that suits your values, strengths, and work styles–and committing your time, money, and energy to what really matters to you. Managing yourself requires a deep understanding of what you value, how you use your resources, and how you define success. It also entails making hard choices about which goals you’ll strive for. But by managing yourself, you reach your goals and tally up more ‘wins.’ Equally crucial, you truly enjoy your successes. The three Harvard Business Review articles in this collection: ‘Managing Oneself’ by Peter F. Drucker (HBR reprint R0501K), ‘Do Your Commitments Match Your Convictions?’ by Donald M. Sull (HBR reprint R0501H), and ‘Success That Lasts’ by Laura Nash and Howard Stevenson (HBR reprint R0402H).”

Harvard Business Online: “Throughout history, people had little need to manage their careers–they were born into their stations in life or, in the recent past, relied on their companies to chart their career paths. But times have drastically changed. Today we must all learn to manage ourselves. What does that mean? As Peter Drucker tells us in this seminal article first published in 1999, it means we have to learn to develop ourselves. We have to place ourselves where we can make the greatest contribution to our organizations and communities. And we have to stay mentally alert and engaged during a 50-year working life, which means knowing how and when to change the work we do. It may seem obvious that people achieve results by doing what they are good at and by working in ways that fit their abilities. But, Drucker says, very few people actually know–let alone take advantage of–their fundamental strengths. He challenges each of us to ask ourselves: What are my strengths? How do I perform? What are my values? Where do I belong? What should my contribution be? Don’t try to change yourself, Drucker cautions. Instead, concentrate on improving the skills you have and accepting assignments that are tailored to your individual way of working. If you do that, you can transform yourself from an ordinary worker into an outstanding performer. Today’s successful careers are not planned out in advance. They develop when people are prepared for opportunities because they have asked themselves those questions and rigorously assessed their unique characteristics. This article challenges readers to take responsibility for managing their futures, both in and out of the office.”

What’s Your Story?

Publication Date: Jan 1, 2005

Author(s): Herminia Ibarra, Kent Lineback

Type: Harvard Business Review Article

When you’re in the midst of a major career change, telling stories about your professional self can inspire others’ belief in your character and in your capacity to take a leap and land on your feet. It also can help you believe in yourself. A narrative thread will give meaning to your career history; it will assure you that, in moving on to something new, you are not discarding everything you’ve worked so hard to accomplish. Unfortunately, the authors explain in this article, most of us fail to use the power of storytelling in pursuit of our professional goals, or we do it badly. Tales of transition are especially challenging. Not knowing how to reconcile the built-in discontinuities in our work lives, we often relay just the facts. We present ourselves as safe–and dull and unremarkable. That’s not a necessary compromise. A transition story has inherent dramatic appeal. The protagonist is you, of course, and what’s at stake is your career. Perhaps you’ve come to an event or insight that represents a point of no return. It’s this kind of break with the past that will force you to discover and reveal who you really are. Discontinuity and tension are part of the experience. If these elements are missing from your career story, the tale will fall flat. With all these twists and turns, how do you demonstrate stability and earn listeners’ trust? By emphasizing continuity and causality–in other words, by showing that your past is related to the present and, from that trajectory, conveying that a solid future is in sight. If you can make your story of transition cohere, you will have gone far in convincing the listener–and reassuring yourself–that the change makes sense for you and is likely to bring success.

“New Scientist has several round-ups of 2004. They include one for technology , space and biology . There’s also an interesting peice about the most popular stories of the year.”

I am impressed by The Economist’s continued quest towards informed and intelligent take on the current trends in the world; including the technology trends. Their latest survey on nanotechnology is right on the mark, separating the chaff from the grain, and the promise from the hyperbole. I recommend it to anyone who is seriously considering whether this sector merits continued attention, both as a source of next technological “leap forward” and also to determine its business potential.

Solving The Puzzle of Human Cooperation succinctly states the issues and positions regarding the biological origins and evolution of cooperation. Another great find from http://del.icio.us/tag/cooperation

Cooperation in human groups is a serious puzzle because we cooperate extensively with distantly related and even unrelated individuals. Hamilton’s (1964) theory of inclusive fitness and Trivers (1971) theory of reciprocal altruism predicted that cooperation can only evolve under highly restricted circumstances. At the time they advanced these ideas, many evolutionary biologists assumed that large-scale animal cooperation was common and that large-scale group selection for altruism was the explanation for it. The work inspired by these theories has resulted in a nearly total triumph for Hamilton and Trivers, although vigorous and sophisticated dissent is still heard (Sober and Wilson, 1998). However, human politics is the only really good example to hand of cooperation on large and even very large scales among nonrelatives. For the rest of the organic world Hamilton’s and Trivers’ mechanisms seem virtually as unexceptional as the law of gravity. Indeed, human societies themselves show ample evidence of individual selfishness, nepotism, and small-scale cabals but nevertheless manage, to highly variable degrees, to provide the benefits of cooperation on considerable scales. While we do not regard the case closed by any means, we think that group selection on cultural variation together with moralistic punishment and tribal social instincts are the strongest current candidates to explain how human societies evolve to fly in a world where strong selective forces favoring only smallscale cooperation act against their existence.

The good news is that there are now some promising new sources of RFID stock investing information.

* RFIDInvesting.com: As the name suggests, this site is dedicated to providing investors with a ‘Global News Portal & Research Resources to Track NASDAQ, AMEX and OTC Stocks.’ This site maintains a list of publicly-traded RFID stocks.

One thing I like, too, is that they list all of the RFID stock charts on a single page. That saves a lot of time.

Right now the site seems to be mainly an information source, and I couldn’t yet find a lot of commentary or opinion on RFID stocks. But the site is very very new, so I expect the commentary will come.

* Motley Fool: The Fool has initiated commentary on RFID, through columns such as this one and through their subscription services. There is also a discussion board dedicated to RFID.

Here’s a sample from one of the articles: ‘…he provides a frank assessment of the public companies that he favors in this promising sector, such as Zebra Technologies (Nasdaq: ZBRA), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), and UNOVA’s (NYSE: UNA) Intermec, as well as those that he sees having an uphill climb, like pet and human RFID tag specialist Applied Digital (Nasdaq: ADS”

This Industry Week article has a handy side-by-side chart comparing the benefits of bar codes vs RFID tags.

The author suggests that bar codes may be superior to RFID for certain purposes, or sometimes used in conjunction with RFID tags.

It is definitely worth a read.”

Virtual Girlfriend

This could quite possibly be the killer app for next gen cell phones. It’s the Virtual Girlfriend for your mobile phone. Just like the real thing, she demands that you pay a lot of attention to her and when you don’t she will call you or SMS you and want to know why.

“The rules are simple, just spend time with me, talk to me, and make me happy, and you will do quite well in the game. You will need to answer the questions I am posing every day, and play in the role play games, this will earn you extra points.”

There is actually a substantial amount of technology in this game. Developed by Artificial Life:

“The primary control or core of the ALife-SmartEngineâ„¢ is a meta-controller that is essential for the bot to formulate appropriate

responses to user inquiries.

SmartEngine 3.0 is our proprietary Natural Language Processing

technology that is fully integrated into EVERY product we sell. Following are key features of the SmartEngine.”

What’s really fascinating about this is how the subscriber actually builds a relationship with the bot, which in turn learns and advances to new levels of play. But you have to be careful because you can get to the point where the v-girl proposes to you and introduces you to the virtual mother-in-law who will then proceed to call you in the evenings and ask you why are aren’t paying enough attention to her daughter.

Blogcritics.org: World’s Most Expensive Water – $33.50 For 2 Ounces: “World’s Most Expensive Water – $33.50 For 2 Ounces

In Search of the World’s Best Water

by Bill Sardi

It’s called Kona Nigari, comes from 2,000 feet down off the coast of Hawaii, and it’s bottled by Hawaii Deep Marine.

Kona Nigari is a seawater mineral concentrate you mix with regular water. You can buy some at the Key of Life store in the Royal Hawaiian Shopping Center in Honolulu.

As always with expensive weird shit, the Japanese are driving the market. They can’t drink it fast enough.

When’s the next plane out? Gotta have this right now.

Don’t I?

Said Steve Bretschneider, deputy director for the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, quoted in today’s USA Today story by Sean Hao, ‘The great thing is, we have plenty of it. We’re not going to run out.’

Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle decided to issue an official Hawaii deep-sea water certificate. The state will charge 3 cents a bottle to use a logo to distinguish Hawaiian seawater from Japanese-produced seawater.

So great. As if there’s a wall between the two. Jeez, wonder what these people think of the concept of ‘mix ‘n mingle?’ Probably better not bring it up while they’re riding their ‘wave.’

Koyo USA’s Ma Ha Lo brand seawater will be the first to carry the Hawaii logo.

Koyo’s currently shipping 80,000 bottles a DAY to Japan.

The soaring, insatiable Japanese demand is based on a variety of health claims from bottlers, none of which have yet been [nor will they ever be, may I add] medically proved.

The water is high in minerals and believed free of modern contaminents. Gee, I could could say the same thing about my 1-A-Day vitamin tablet, but that would be dumb.

Wouldn’t it?

Oh, yeah, in case you didn’t do the math, I did: Kona Nigari will set you back a cool $2,144 a gallon.

Skol!

Mathematics and Sex: “Mathematics is the study of patterns: their discovery, their interconnections and their implications.’ And what is sexual behavior but the most intriguing pattern of all?”

The way one studies patterns mathematically is by building models for the behavior being modeled. This is why most of this book is about mathematical models for interpersonal behavior. Well, that together with some amusing anecdotes that make the book a fun read even if you know the literature very well. Still, before I go any further with this review I want to remind everyone that the key question to ask oneself when reading any book that does mathematical modeling of any topic is always the same: are the models built realistic?. Mathematicians can’t answer this question: only research by scientists (i.e., experience) can. Einstein probably put it best when he said:

“As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain, and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.”

While we do study models for their applicability and their eventual predictive use by and for science, mathematicians can and do also study them for their intrinsic mathematics beauty, and some of the models Cresswell discusses in this book are certainly very pretty (in the mathematical sense of beauty–because the solutions are elegant, though the pun is intended.)

As an example of what this whole subject is like let me tell you about a long-studied model of interpersonal behavior that the author discusses in Chapter 3, a chapter titled “Road Testing the Bed”–I kid you not.

“You have to choose your life mate. The rules we adopt for this model are that you will be presented 100 choices one after another, you may date them, sleep with them, whatever. But, at the end, you must say yea or nay and if you say nay, you will never see them again.”

What strategy should you adopt? Well, if you wait to the end, the odds are only 1/100 that the last person is the optimal choice; ditto if you choose the first person. The modeler then asks: what strategy should you adopt for optimum results? A little bit of mathematics involving infinite series gives the answer. You can prove mathematically that the best strategy is to look at (approximately) the first 36.787944117144235 people (rounding it to, say, 37 people) and then you should choose the first person from that point on that is ‘better’ then the previous 37 people. This increases the odds of your finding the best match from 1% to about 37%- roughly a 37 times improvement. (In the pre-politically correct literature this model was called “The Sultan’s Dowry Problem,” or “The Secretary Problem”; now, alas, it is usually called simply an example of an “Optimal Stopping Problem.” )

Is this a good model for how we behave? Is this a strategy that one can realistically adopt? Certainly, 100 possibilities seems like a lot of choices to have if one is not the current day equivalent of a sultan — a movie star or an athlete. But the model is intriguing, if not totally realistic and applicable.

Models that spring from modification of the rules of the Sultan problem have always been one of my favorites in this area. This makes Chapter 3 my favorite chapter: it is chock full of goodies with lots of interesting variations of the original problem, and thus even more interesting models. Some may be far more applicable. For example, if you get to play the cad and can keep potential mates ’stockpiled,’ then, by stockpiling seven potential mates, there’s a strategy that you can use to increase the odds of finding the best one to 96% or so! Or, in another variation of the model, whose solution she refers to as the “twelve bonk rule,” there’s a result that says that if you simply want to ensure that your choice is better than 90% of the other choices available, simply ’sample’ the first 12 possibilities and pick the first person who is better after the first 12. This strategy gives you a 77% possibility of success.

I obviously can’t go over all the models she builds, the interesting results she cites, or the interesting observations she makes in a review so let me simply give you some of the high points of the remaining chapters:

Chapter 1 is entitled “Love, sweeeet love” and mostly consists of showing you various differential equations that can model love’s attraction and repulsion i.e. variations on standard “prey-predator models.” For example, she mentions the following model of attraction:

“The more Romeo loves Juliet, the More Juliet wants to run away … Romeo gets discouraged and backs off, Juliet finds him strangely attractive. Romeo tends to echo her…”

This model gives rise to a standard and very simple first order differential equation. She then talks about more sophisticated versions of this model including one by Rinaldi that tries to model a famous love poem by Petrarch. (Personally, I think these models are only useful for learning differential equations but don’t shed much light on the problem.)

Chapter 2 is called “Marriage and the Happily Ever After” and describes models for behavior in a relationship, including an analysis of how absurd the folk tale is that more sex occurs in the first year of marriage then in all subsequent years combined. Probably the most interesting work she talks about in this chapter are the models by Guttman et al. intended to analyze conversations between lovers to determine if the relationship is on the rocks. In this case the models they build are known to be highly accurate in predicting problems in the relationship.

Chapter 4 is entitled “Dating Services — are you really being served?” and it has a fascinating analysis of the perils of questionnaires that try to match too many variables (i.e. why those questionnaires don’t help that much). As she points out, this is called the “curse of dimensionality” in the literature. The problem is that if you are trying to determine whether two points are very close in n-dimensional space where n is large, you are unlikely to get a whole lot of difference between points and so closeness doesn’t really matter much.

Chapter 5 is called “Pairing Up,” and shows how Game Theory can (should?) enter into the problem of “choice” preferences. This chapter is a very nice gateway into models that are studied in the greatest depth in economics; there is an incredibly interesting literature on these issues. One should start with Arrow’s paradox on voting (that most logical axiom systems for building choice models are actually inconsistent and can’t simultaneously be satisfied) and then work up to real problems with how congressional seats are allocated in the United States. Wikipedia has good articles to start with on these models.

Chapter 6 is called “Action Reaction Attraction” and is about ways to model people’s attractiveness. This means things like symmetry as a cross cultural model for beauty, and waist-to-hip ratio for females as a cross-cultural model for male choice. Whether these models are correct is an extremely active area of research in anthropology and evolutionary psychology. The jury seems to still be out, but the evidence for their truth is certainly growing.

Chapter 7 is called “Pick a Sex, Any Sex” and is a tantalizing hint of what the mathematics of evolution is all about. In particular this chapter includes a nice discussion of how sex itself can evolve. (It seems paradoxical that the question of how sex itself can evolve is not yet resolved. After all, in a naive “selfish gene” approach to evolution, it would seem seem that asexual methods of reproduction win hands down. But, as usual, the issues are more complex then naive models would predict. For example, who would have thought that parasites might be the reason sex arose? Again, for more details on the science behind the models the author discusses, you can start with a useful Wikipedia article. Ridley’s popular science book called the Red Queen (or anything by Maynard Smith) is where to go next.

Chapter 8 is titled “How Ovaries Count and Balls Add Up,” and is about models for feedback levels of hormone concentration and circadian rhythms and didn’t particular interest me.

Finally, Chapter 9 is called “Orgasm” and I’m not going to summarize it, since that would be telling.

To sum up, is this book perfect? No. I think more mathematically literate people would like appendices which give some indication of the deeper math behind what she discusses. For example, the math that shows why the answer I gave above to the Sultan’s choice problem really is approximately 36.787944117144235 – or more correctly n/e, where e is the base of natural logarithms and n is the number of choices one has to go through, is well within the reach of any 2nd year calculus student. The differential equations she introduces in other chapters can be understood by anyone with a good engineering or math background. The game theory and even a proof of Arrow’s theorem should be accessible to any literate person etc. As is, though, anyone with even some knowledge of or interest in mathematics will find this book great fun.

on the first page, I saw the following typed statement:

THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY BLANK

I got the joke; I got the paradox. I laughed

how many efficient market theorists it takes to change a light bulb. ‘Answer: None. If the light bulb needed changing the market would have already done it.

Why Read It?

E-tailing and e-commerce in general has attracted its fair share of hype and it is difficult to predict its long-term acceptance. The failure of a large number of dot-com companies and a drift away from investor confidence in the sector saw critics predicting a short life. This book steers away from the hype and gives a practical guide to success and risk factors in setting up an e-tail operation.

This book gives a practical guide to building a successful retailing business on the Internet. It describes the current state of the market and identifies success factors as well as risks. The book is written by three specialists in e-tailing and is regarded as a valuable guide for anyone entering e-tailing for the first time.

Getting Started

The future of shopping is online–it has already reached a mass-market audience in the USA. Early participants may already have a winning advantage, and established companies must question the fundamentals of their business. The Net has diminished the strength of traditional brands, as Internet success doesn’t come for operations that are simply cloned from the physical world.

Customer loyalty is important but increasingly difficult to create, meaning that soon all successful e-tailers will offer almost everything tailored individually to the customer.

Because the Internet is the central medium of the future, companies should consider offering both online and off-line services, each complementing the other.

Contribution

1. The future of shopping is online

E-shopping has already reached a mass-market audience in the USA, and it is set to take off in the rest of the world. For established retailers and entrepreneurs the question is not which sector is ripe for Internet trading, but whether the opportunity is still open.

2. Traditional physical assets no longer have value

Established companies must question the fundamentals of their business, otherwise an Internet start-up will do it for them. E-shopping is not about exploiting an additional sales channel, but about establishing a whole new business. Traditional physical retail formats must be restructured fundamentally or disappear.

3. New players are seizing power

New players are building up a lead in e-shopping; competitors are springing up everywhere, and competition is becoming increasingly intense. E-tailing will eliminate middlemen, as well as industry and sector boundaries.

4. Successful e-tailing is the survival of the fastest

In the Internet economy, survival and winning are equivalent. Market leadership and the creation of successful new retail formats are critical. However, most e-shopping sites are loss making on a large scale because of high start-up and investment costs.

5. Internet shops need new brands

The Internet has diminished the strength of traditional brands. An example is Prudential’s online bank, aimed at a very different set of target customers to the company’s traditional base. The new brand made little of the company’s traditional virtues–solid, dependable, long-established. The emphasis was on a brand that was modern, technology-friendly, convenient, and different.

6. Context makes the difference

Internet success won’t come for operations that are simply cloned from the physical world. The key to success is to design a retail site around three factors:

* convenience

* content which adds value

* a sense of community and belonging for the customer

The successful site must also have traditional commercial nous.

7. Customer loyalty is important but increasingly difficult to create

E-tailers need repeat business to achieve profitability. However the e-customer is a fickle entity. Winning loyalty depends on a number of factors:

* knowing more about customers and offering more

* addressing customers individually

* giving customers control of the business relationship by enabling then to design personalised products or manage transactions themselves

* creating a sense of community

8. Built-to-order offerings will upset traditional value chains

There are hardly any limits to personalisation. Most cars and PCs are now made to individual specifications, and soon all successful e-tailers will offer almost everything tailored individually to the customer. Even if the product is uniform, the surrounding experience can be tailored.

9. Innovation will be driven from the duality of product and service

Duality is the idea that “each product is a service and each service is a product”.

A product that is personalised contains a strong element of service in the transaction-customer needs are analysed, a machine is built to order and telephones hotlines are available.

10. E-shopping is currently a US phenomenon

The US enjoys a tremendous structural advantage for e-tailers:

* it is the largest homogeneous market

* it has the largest online consumer base

* the Web has penetrated everyday life

* internet sales in the US receive a subsidy from the absence of a sales tax

11. Traditional companies can offer online/offline services

Some of the US advantages in online plays may be disadvantages when it comes to a combined online/offline play. The US sales tax regime forces companies into a pure online play, preventing most of the “bricks-and-mortar” players in the US developing consumer-friendly, combined online/offline concepts.

In the rest of the world the current absence of dominant online players gives traditional companies a better chance of successfully entering the Internet space.

12. The Internet is the central medium of the future

Many companies view the Internet merely as a sales channel and treat it as an add-on without fundamentally questioning their current business system. However, companies should concentrate on developing truly complementary offline value (context and convenience, entertainment, customer acquisition and loyalty). Current asset bases should be aggressively transformed, built or divested accordingly.

The Best Sources of Help

Birch, Alex, Philipp Gerbert and Dirk Schneider. “The Age of E-tail: Conquering the New World of Electronic Shopping”. Oxford: Capstone, 2001.

websitewww.theageofe-tail.com