Influx Insights’ on why a China strategy is necessary:

China has secured its spot in the global marketplace, and the world is taking notice. Everyone is talking about China, but we thought it was worth uncovering why – the answer is scale. What’s particularly
astonishing is China’s potential is not even close to being tapped yet, with low penetration rates indicating that China’s dominance will only continue to grow. Here are some statistics that help to explain why
China is on everyone’s radar these days.

Economy
- Population of over 1.3 billion. The United States is about 295.7 million.
- Population growth rate is .58%. The United States is .92%.
- Population expected to hit 1.46 billion by the 2030s.
- The world’s fastest growing large economy.
- GDP of about $7.3 trillion. The United States is approximately $11.8 trillion.
- GDP per capita of $5,600. United States is $40,100.
- Estimated GDP growth rate of 9.1% verses 4.4% for the United States.
- Japan’s largest trading partner, a spot previously held by the United States.
- US imports from China were $179.2 billion in 2004.
- China imports from the US were $31.5 billion ($45.9 billion if Hong Kong is included).
-
Many Chinese firms are looking to make acquisitions of US firms in
order to build global brands. Qingdao Haier in China recently placed a bid on the US based Maytag Corporation.

Resources
- Approximately 40% of the world oil demand growth over the past 4 years.
- Highest production and consumption of coal.
- Largest producer of steel and cement.
- Second largest consumer of energy.
- Third largest producer of energy.

Technology & Communication
- Largest cellular phone market, with 353.7 million users. The US has 180.5 million.
- 26% penetration rate for cell phones, compared to 50% in the United States.
- 5.5 million new subscribers a month.
- Expected to be over 500 million cellular phone users by 2007.
- 7 million cellular phone users less than 10 years ago. The United States had 44 million.
- Almost 100 million Internet users, the United States has approximately 200 million.
- Internet users increased 18% from 2003 – 2004, and is currently increasing at 800,000 a week.
- Estimated that 4 million people maintain blogs, approximately half the number in the US.
- Largest mobile networks in the world, but is only at a 15% penetration rate.

Transportation
- 75% increase in automobile sales during 2003. 15% increase in 2004. The US had a 1% increase in 2004.
- 16 cars and light passenger trucks per 1,000 people. 700 per 1,000 people in the United States and 598 per 1,000 people in Japan.
- Automobile market expected to grow to 51 cars and trucks per 1,000 people by 2014.
- More than 5 million new cars sold in 2004. 16.9 million new cars sold in the United States.
- Car sales expected to increase by 10-15% this year, while remaining steady in the US.
- 2% of consumers own a private car, but 5% say they will buy one within the next two years.
- Worlds third-largest vehicle market, behind the United States and Japan.

Advertising
- Current advertising market

is approximately $9 billion, and is expected to grow to $12 billion by
2006 and $18 billion by 2011, which would make it the third largest
advertising market.
- Internet advertising grew approximately 58% between 2003 and 2004, reaching $230 million by the end of 2004. Expected to double by 2006.td>

Tom Evslin writes:: “It is almost impossible to sell something which customers can?t use unless they change the way they do business. That?s a hard lesson for an innovator to swallow because the best use of innovative products is to change the way business is done. The more you tell your prospect that your product is revolutionary, the more nervous he?ll get. Besides, it may not matter to him that what?s inside your product is revolutionary; he doesn?t want to buy a revolution. He wants something that?ll make his business work better.”

I bought a new 17 inch iMac G5 and it arrived today! I am writing this blog post in my new desktop.

Apple has made a wonderful computer

Did you know Steve Jobs of Apple sold empty soda cans for the 5 cent
refund to buy food? I found great depth and insight in his speech. The
following is the complete text of his speech in Stanford commencement
address called ‘You’ve got to find what you love’.

This is the text of the Commencement address by Steve Jobs, CEO of
Apple Computer and of Pixar Animation Studios, delivered on June 12,
2005.

“I am honored to be with you today at your commencement from one of
the finest universities in the world. I never graduated from college.
Truth be told, this is the closest I’ve ever gotten to a college
graduation. Today I want to tell you three stories from my life.
That’s it. No big deal. Just three stories.

The first story is about connecting the dots.

I dropped out of Reed College after the first 6 months, but then
stayed around as a drop-in for another 18 months or so before I really
quit. So why did I drop out?

It started before I was born. My biological mother was a young, unwed
college graduate student, and she decided to put me up for adoption.
She felt very strongly that I should be adopted by college graduates,
so everything was all set for me to be adopted at birth by a lawyer
and his wife. Except that when I popped out they decided at the last
minute that they really wanted a girl. So my parents, who were on a
waiting list, got a call in the middle of the night asking: “We have
an unexpected baby boy; do you want him?” They said: “Of course.” My
biological mother later found out that my mother had never graduated
from college and that my father had never graduated from high school.
She refused to sign the final adoption papers. She only relented a few
months later when my parents promised that I would someday go to
college.

And 17 years later I did go to college. But I naively chose a college
that was almost as expensive as Stanford, and all of my working-class
parents’ savings were being spent on my college tuition. After six
months, I couldn’t see the value in it. I had no idea what I wanted to
do with my life and no idea how college was going to help me figure it
out. And here I was spending all of the money my parents had saved
their entire life. So I decided to drop out and trust that it would
all work out OK. It was pretty scary at the time, but looking back it
was one of the best decisions I ever made. The minute I dropped out I
could stop taking the required classes that didn’t interest me, and
begin dropping in on the ones that looked interesting.

It wasn’t all romantic. I didn’t have a dorm room, so I slept on the
floor in friends’ rooms, I returned coke bottles for the 5¢ deposits
to buy food with, and I would walk the 7 miles across town every
Sunday night to get one good meal a week at the Hare Krishna temple. I
loved it. And much of what I stumbled into by following my curiosity
and intuition turned out to be priceless later on. Let me give you one
example:

Reed College at that time offered perhaps the best calligraphy
instruction in the country. Throughout the campus every poster, every
label on every drawer, was beautifully hand calligraphed. Because I
had dropped out and didn’t have to take the normal classes, I decided
to take a calligraphy class to learn how to do this. I learned about
serif and san serif typefaces, about varying the amount of space
between different letter combinations, about what makes great
typography great. It was beautiful, historical, artistically subtle in
a way that science can’t capture, and I found it fascinating.

None of this had even a hope of any practical application in my life.
But ten years later, when we were designing the first Macintosh
computer, it all came back to me. And we designed it all into the Mac.
It was the first computer with beautiful typography. If I had never
dropped in on that single course in college, the Mac would have never
had multiple typefaces or proportionally spaced fonts. And since
Windows just copied the Mac, its likely that no personal computer
would have them. If I had never dropped out, I would have never
dropped in on this calligraphy class, and personal computers might not
have the wonderful typography that they do. Of course it was
impossible to connect the dots looking forward when I was in college.
But it was very, very clear looking backwards ten years later.

Again, you can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only
connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots
will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something -
your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let
me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.

My second story is about love and loss.

I was lucky ? I found what I loved to do early in life. Woz and I
started Apple in my parents garage when I was 20. We worked hard, and
in 10 years Apple had grown from just the two of us in a garage into a
$2 billion company with over 4000 employees. We had just released our
finest creation – the Macintosh – a year earlier, and I had just
turned 30. And then I got fired. How can you get fired from a company
you started? Well, as Apple grew we hired someone who I thought was
very talented to run the company with me, and for the first year or so
things went well. But then our visions of the future began to diverge
and eventually we had a falling out. When we did, our Board of
Directors sided with him. So at 30 I was out. And very publicly out.
What had been the focus of my entire adult life was gone, and it was
devastating.

I really didn’t know what to do for a few months. I felt that I had
let the previous generation of entrepreneurs down – that I had dropped
the baton as it was being passed to me. I met with David Packard and
Bob Noyce and tried to apologize for screwing up so badly. I was a
very public failure, and I even thought about running away from the
valley. But something slowly began to dawn on me ? I still loved what
I did. The turn of events at Apple had not changed that one bit. I had
been rejected, but I was still in love. And so I decided to start
over.

I didn’t see it then, but it turned out that getting fired from Apple
was the best thing that could have ever happened to me. The heaviness
of being successful was replaced by the lightness of being a beginner
again, less sure about everything. It freed me to enter one of the
most creative periods of my life.

During the next five years, I started a company named NeXT, another
company named Pixar, and fell in love with an amazing woman who would
become my wife. Pixar went on to create the worlds first computer
animated feature film, Toy Story, and is now the most successful
animation studio in the world. In a remarkable turn of events, Apple
bought NeXT, I retuned to Apple, and the technology we developed at
NeXT is at the heart of Apple’s current renaissance. And Laurene and I
have a wonderful family together.

I’m pretty sure none of this would have happened if I hadn’t been
fired from Apple. It was awful tasting medicine, but I guess the
patient needed it. Sometimes life hits you in the head with a brick.
Don’t lose faith. I’m convinced that the only thing that kept me going
was that I loved what I did. You’ve got to find what you love. And
that is as true for your work as it is for your lovers. Your work is
going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly
satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to
do great work is to love what you do. If you haven’t found it yet,
keep looking. Don’t settle. As with all matters of the heart, you’ll
know when you find it. And, like any great relationship, it just gets
better and better as the years roll on. So keep looking until you find
it. Don’t settle.

My third story is about death.

When I was 17, I read a quote that went something like: “If you live
each day as if it was your last, someday you’ll most certainly be
right.” It made an impression on me, and since then, for the past 33
years, I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself: “If
today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about
to do today?” And whenever the answer has been “No” for too many days
in a row, I know I need to change something.

Remembering that I’ll be dead soon is the most important tool I’ve
ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because
almost everything ? all external expectations, all pride, all fear of
embarrassment or failure – these things just fall away in the face of
death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are
going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you
have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not
to follow your heart.

About a year ago I was diagnosed with cancer. I had a scan at 7:30 in
the morning, and it clearly showed a tumor on my pancreas. I didn’t
even know what a pancreas was. The doctors told me this was almost
certainly a type of cancer that is incurable, and that I should expect
to live no longer than three to six months. My doctor advised me to go
home and get my affairs in order, which is doctor’s code for prepare
to die. It means to try to tell your kids everything you thought you’d
have the next 10 years to tell them in just a few months. It means to
make sure everything is buttoned up so that it will be as easy as
possible for your family. It means to say your goodbyes.

I lived with that diagnosis all day. Later that evening I had a
biopsy, where they stuck an endoscope down my throat, through my
stomach and into my intestines, put a needle into my pancreas and got
a few cells from the tumor. I was sedated, but my wife, who was there,
told me that when they viewed the cells under a microscope the doctors
started crying because it turned out to be a very rare form of
pancreatic cancer that is curable with surgery. I had the surgery and
I’m fine now.

This was the closest I’ve been to facing death, and I hope its the
closest I get for a few more decades. Having lived through it, I can
now say this to you with a bit more certainty than when death was a
useful but purely intellectual concept:

No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don’t want
to die to get there. And yet death is the destination we all share. No
one has ever escaped it. And that is as it should be, because Death is
very likely the single best invention of Life. It is Life’s change
agent. It clears out the old to make way for the new. Right now the
new is you, but someday not too long from now, you will gradually
become the old and be cleared away. Sorry to be so dramatic, but it is
quite true.

Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life.
Don’t be trapped by dogma – which is living with the results of other
people’s thinking. Don’t let the noise of other’s opinions drown out
your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow
your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly
want to become. Everything else is secondary.

When I was young, there was an amazing publication called The Whole
Earth Catalog, which was one of the bibles of my generation. It was
created by a fellow named Stewart Brand not far from here in Menlo
Park, and he brought it to life with his poetic touch. This was in the
late 1960’s, before personal computers and desktop publishing, so it
was all made with typewriters, scissors, and polaroid cameras. It was
sort of like Google in paperback form, 35 years before Google came
along: it was idealistic, and overflowing with neat tools and great
notions.

Stewart and his team put out several issues of The Whole Earth
Catalog, and then when it had run its course, they put out a final
issue. It was the mid-1970s, and I was your age. On the back cover of
their final issue was a photograph of an early morning country road,
the kind you might find yourself hitchhiking on if you were so
adventurous. Beneath it were the words: “Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.”
It was their farewell message as they signed off. Stay Hungry. Stay
Foolish. And I have always wished that for myself. And now, as you
graduate to begin anew, I wish that for you.

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

Thank you all very much.

I saw the movie One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest today on DVD. A very moving and intense movie.

It won the Oscars for Jack Nicholson, Louise Fletcher and director Milos Forman in 1976.

I will be on day-long trip to a resort in the Blue Ridge mountains in Virginia on Jun 16th. Horseback riding in the Appalachian mountains sounds fun!

And ….in early July, I am making a wild west trip to Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Area 51 (UFO headquarters!) in Nevada.

Maybe even San Diego if I can squeeze it in the itinerary.

Filed under Categories: Travel

“The American government is notoriously stingy with its foreign aid, giving just 0.2% of GDP to poor countries every year. Even when Americans’ ample private donations are added in, America still falls near the bottom of the rich-nation pack in generosity to those abroad. Yet American voters believe they are absurdly generous. A 2001 poll showed that they think 24% of their federal budget goes on foreign aid, a figure that would amount to more than 4% of America?s GDP.”

Filed under Categories: Society

“Google Maps uses a fixed longitude/latitude distance ratio of ~0.772, while the true ratio depends on latitude (the ratio should be cos(latitude)). So Google Map is optimized for 39.5 of latitude (N or S), and the maps are increasingly distorted as you go toward the poles or the equator.

For example, Anchorage is stretched horizontally by a factor of 1.60 [google.com] (yup those should be right angles).

MapQuest is similarly distorted, but Yahoo Maps is not.”

Filed under Categories: Technology, Software

Roger Lowenstein (of When Genius Failed fame) writes in NYT:

At a dinner in Palm Beach, Fla., in March, I casually inquired of one hedge-fund steward how much he controlled. Came the reply, ”Six and a half billion dollars.” I whistled and replied that 1 percent of $6.5 billion would be a decent living. (Hedge-fund managers often charge 1 percent of assets plus a fifth of any profits.) He smiled and held up two fingers: 2 percent. Do the math; this gentleman’s firm will earn, annually, $130 million a year for switching on the lights each morning — $260 million if his fund attains a ho-hum return of 10 percent. No wonder that the London Business School boasts a ”Hedge Fund Center” and, according to a recent graduate’s informal survey, Harvard Business School sent 60 percent more of its graduates to hedge funds last year than to the much bigger mutual-fund industry.

Filed under Categories: Finance

It’s a good time to be a financial-disaster writer. Disasters abound, and even when they don’t, people are eager for your opinion on when the next bubble is going to pop. Scarcely a day goes by without a warning of some dire calamity — in the dollar, in housing values, in pension funds. The way people crave financial info, we must be the best-informed, most economically literate society ever. But we do not sleep any better for it. Is all the anxiety warranted, or even productive?

A few years ago, the chief claim on the public tranquillity was the fear of ”deflation,” meaning that the price of just about everything would fall. Before that, it was fear of ”Y2K.” Neither transpired. This is not to say that disaster never strikes. The number of bubbles and consequent meltdowns over the last quarter-century could fill a proper B-school syllabus. In order of appearance, oil drillers, precious metals, personal computer makers, the stock market, commercial real estate, Trump casinos, junk bonds, biotechs, Russia and Internet stocks each had their moments of glory and returned to earth.

Not every bubble ends with a crash, but sometimes, because of a linkage or feedback mechanism, one loss triggers another and leads to a sort of contagion. In 1929, people who bought stocks on credit were forced to sell, which spurred more losses, more loan repayments and more forced selling. This is what people worry about: the Big One. Japan experienced a somewhat similar meltdown in the early 90’s.

Almost by definition, the spark for such calamities is unforeseeable. This explains our vigilance. What is less appreciated is that excessive, or inappropriate, vigilance also exacts a price. It does so in several ways. People who insulate their portfolios against phantom risks pay a toll, just as they paid to protect their computers against Y2K.

In limiting risk, people also limit the opportunity for gain. It is common, today, for investors to own six or eight mutual funds, each of which is likely to be invested in hundreds of stocks. This will, they hope, assure that no little bump, no little meltdown, overly upsets their portfolios. But since when was investing about avoiding the bumps? Anyone investing for the longer term can safely ignore them.

George Bernard Shaw observed that every profession is a conspiracy against the laity. The financial profession duly warns us of meltdown risk, but it has adopted a pinched definition of risk that has led us into fruitless and sometimes harmful diversions. The odds of a meltdown being necessarily uncertain, Wall Street fosters an overly precise, pseudoscientific approach. Investors are told to ”balance” portfolios (rather than to select stocks), to ”allocate” (rather than to ”invest”) their assets and to reckon with quarterly earnings forecasts down to the penny per share — an absurd irrelevancy for someone whose retirement is years away.

Wall Street properly worries about what might go wrong, but it has recast the issue in spurious terms, detaching us from the messy and often subjective considerations that might help us avoid truly perilous bubbles: those that (like the dot-coms) subject us to the risk of enduring loss. If you tune in to enough financial shows, you are bound to stop asking considered questions like ”Is the Web going to be full of other companies competing against this one?” and to start toying with numerics like a stock’s volatility or the percent of your holdings in a given ‘’sector.” No wonder people are jittery: this stuff changes every second. To listen to the anchors on cable TV, we should reshuffle our portfolios in response to each new, tangential threat — oil prices, the dollar, real estate. And, of course, we should diversify in the extreme.

Diversification is insurance against the possibility that we might do something stupid; it also heightens the chance that we will do something stupid. People with flood insurance build their homes closer to the shore, and people in the 90’s, having diversified, figured they could afford to take at least a small flier on dot-coms. Risk prevention can lead to risk.

Lately, our search for calamity has focused on those obscure but swiftly multiplying Wall Street beasts, ”hedge funds.” When General Motors was downgraded to junk-bond status, it was not G.M.’s fate that seemed to preoccupy traders and journalists as much as the fact that some of these funds had suffered possibly dire losses. Why some private-investment partnerships (which is what hedge funds are) should be cause for general alarm has to do with their pervasive character. They are said to be everywhere — determining the outcome of shareholder battles, roiling the art market, causing a run on convertible bonds. Markets were less worrisome when they were simpler, when they confronted us with fewer choices; hedge funds seem an embodiment of complexity. Also, the last near market meltdown was occasioned by the implosion in 1998 of Long-Term Capital Management, a Greenwich, Conn., bond-trading firm that was, indeed, a hedge fund.

That is hardly reason to indict such funds for the next collapse. L.T.C.M.’s had more to do with its aggressive, leveraged portfolio than with anything intrinsic to its hedge-fund form. But it is human to look for a recurrence, and since Sept. 11, fear of things going drastically wrong has become a national instinct. The reason L.T.C.M. shook Wall Street was that many investment banks held the same positions that the fund did, setting the stage for chain-link losses. But most hedge funds today neither rise nor fall in synchrony. As my colleague Joseph Nocera observes in this issue, they invest in distinct asset types; they are the bits of the chain without the link.

People worry about hedge funds, I think, because of a Galbraithian prejudice that easy money is bad money. At a dinner in Palm Beach, Fla., in March, I casually inquired of one hedge-fund steward how much he controlled. Came the reply, ”Six and a half billion dollars.” I whistled and replied that 1 percent of $6.5 billion would be a decent living. (Hedge-fund managers often charge 1 percent of assets plus a fifth of any profits.) He smiled and held up two fingers: 2 percent. Do the math; this gentleman’s firm will earn, annually, $130 million a year for switching on the lights each morning — $260 million if his fund attains a ho-hum return of 10 percent. No wonder that the London Business School boasts a ”Hedge Fund Center” and, according to a recent graduate’s informal survey, Harvard Business School sent 60 percent more of its graduates to hedge funds last year than to the much bigger mutual-fund industry.

But hedge funds are less an expression of risk-taking than of people’s aversion to risk. Most funds deliberately try to hedge their bets (thus the name) by going both long and short — that is, betting that one asset will rise while a related one falls. They are thus designed to be less volatile than ordinary stocks, which is why they are so fashionable. The risk isn’t meltdown but mediocrity, a glimpse of which may be seen in the industry’s recently lackluster returns.

Real estate, the runner-up to hedge funds in the anxiety sweepstakes, could be another matter. A recent Lehman Brothers report, ”The Changing Landscape of the Mortgage Market,” observed that U.S. homeowners have been ”very willing to increase their leverage . . . through products like IO loans and MTA ARMs.” This refers to interest-only mortgages, and to those in which the rate begins at an alluring, below-market level but after an interim floats according to the yield on Treasury bills. Who in his right mind would take an ”IO- MTA ARM”? Hmmm, come to think of it, I did.

Although my bank did not describe it this way, an adjustable-rate mortgage is a bet between the bank and the homeowner. If rates fall or remain stable, I win; if rates rise, I lose. Of course, if I lose, the bank might also lose. I might, heaven forbid, default.

Why would a bank finance a home that under a conventional mortgage the borrower could not afford? Some computer in its vault was evidently mollified by the variability of the rate. What makes this bet rather interesting is that millions of other people have the same kind of loan that I do. If rates should take a sudden upturn, it is conceivable that a good many will default, in which case an instrument (a floating-rate mortgage) conceived to help the bank manage interest-rate risk will have resulted in increasing the bank’s losses.

The saving grace is that home loans generally are the last thing people default on. But imagine how scary it would be if, say, businesses extended floating-rate contracts to one another — if virtually every company were dependent on making the right calculation about how these risk-avoidance vehicles would function.

Well, actually, they do. They are called derivatives. Derivatives are contracts that call for one party to pay another according to the movement of an underlying yardstick, like a foreign currency, a bond, a stock or even the weather. Since the 1980’s, Wall Street has marketed derivatives as a tool for making risk more palatable, and Alan Greenspan has consistently praised them for enabling firms to spread, or ”manage,” their risk. For instance, a bank can hedge against the risk that one of its loans will sour. It simply — well, not so simply — purchases a ”credit default swap,” which entitles it to a payoff if a specified company, G.M. for instance, goes into default or suffers a material downgrade in its credit rating. The party on the other side might be a hedge fund that is more sanguine on G.M.’s bonds or has a way (it thinks) to hedge that risk. Every financial firm uses some varieties of derivatives, which, again, are contracts that call for a payment (one way or other) depending on some underlying asset. Their growth has been explosive. Credit-default swaps, for instance, didn’t exist a decade ago; today there are $8 trillion of them. No one has any idea of the losses that could ensue from a panic; credit-default swaps ”have never been stress-tested,” notes the analyst James Bianco.

Neither the Fed nor the S.E.C. has ever really clamped down on derivatives or insisted on a form of disclosure that would tell folks what is going on. So forget hedge funds; if you’re searching for the next financial storm, try derivatives. (Nothing much you can do about them, either.) Come to think of it, most of the sudden financial disasters of the previous decade — Orange County, L.T.C.M., Enron — involved derivatives, too.

There is a paradox here. A vehicle developed to help reduce individual risk has heightened risk to the system. At some point, the anxiety turned counterproductive. There was a time, of course, when people could buy only the homes they could afford and invested in only a few, carefully chosen stocks — when traders could not run certain risks because no derivatives existed to provide a hedge. Today, whether you are a trader or homeowner, bank or corporate treasurer, our financial culture offers a prophylactic against every conceivable worry. Maybe weaving a giant insurance net is really the way to manage anxiety, but maybe it has us worrying about what we will do if the insurance fails. Perhaps, if there were fewer traders dulling their anxieties with financial Zoloft and fewer investment options available to the rest of us, we would make better decisions — and sleep more soundly.

I will be on a wild west trip in early July for a few days.

Washington DC to Los Angeles, to Area 51 in Nevada (UFO geeks..here I come!), to Las Vegas (Raj’s One like Ocean’s Eleven, anyone?!)….

and back to LA…then flying back to DC on July 4th!

Me and my convertible, with wind rushing through my hair, on the road from LA to LV…wow….

I am eagerly looking forward to this trip.

Filed under Categories: Area 51, Las Vegas, Los Angeles

Here is the list of World Heritage sites in India. The complete world list is in the full article. I should try and visit as many of them as possible.

India
* Ajanta Caves (1983)
* Ellora Caves (1983)
* Agra Fort (1983)
* Taj Mahal (1983)
* Sun Temple, Konarak (1984)
* Group of Monuments at Mahabalipuram (1984)
* Kaziranga National Park (1985)
* Manas Wildlife Sanctuary (1985)
* Keoladeo National Park (1985)
* Churches and Convents of Goa (1986)
* Khajuraho Group of Monuments (1986)
* Group of Monuments at Hampi (1986)
* Fatehpur Sikri (1986)
* Group of Monuments at Pattadakal (1987)
* Elephanta Caves (1987)
* Great Living Chola Temples (1987, 2004)
* Sundarbans National Park (1987)
* Nanda Devi National Park (1988)
* Buddhist Monuments at Sanchi (1989)
* Humayun’s Tomb, Delhi (1993)
* Qutb Minar and its Monuments, Delhi (1993)
* Darjeeling Himalayan Railway (DHR) (1999)
* Mahabodhi Temple Complex at Bodh Gaya (2002)
* Rock Shelters of Bhimbetka (2003)
* Champaner-Pavagadh Archaeological Park (2004)
* Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus (formerly Victoria Terminus) (2004)

World Heritage List
(Results by Country)
Afghanistan

* Minaret and Archaeological Remains of Jam (2002)
* Cultural Landscape and Archaeological Remains of the Bamiyan Valley (2003)

Albania

* Butrint (1992, 1999)

Algeria

* Al Qal’a of Beni Hammad (1980)
* Tassili n’Ajjer (1982)
* M’Zab Valley (1982)
* Djémila (1982)
* Tipasa (1982)
* Timgad (1982)
* Kasbah of Algiers (1992)

Andorra

* Madriu-Perafita-Claror Valley (2004)

Argentina

* Los Glaciares (1981)
* Jesuit Missions of the Guaranis: San Ignacio Mini, Santa Ana, Nuestra Señora de Loreto and Santa Maria Mayor (Argentina), Ruins of Sao Miguel das Missoes (Brazil) (1983, 1984) *
* Iguazu National Park (1984)
* Cueva de las Manos, Río Pinturas (1999)
* Península Valdés (1999)
* Ischigualasto / Talampaya Natural Parks (2000)
* Jesuit Block and Estancias of Córdoba (2000)
* Quebrada de Humahuaca (2003)

Armenia

* Monasteries of Haghpat and Sanahin (1996, 2000)
* Cathedral and Churches of Echmiatsin and the Archaeological Site of Zvartnots (2000)
* Monastery of Geghard and the Upper Azat Valley (2000)

Australia

* Kakadu National Park (1981, 1987, 1992)
* Great Barrier Reef (1981)
* Willandra Lakes Region (1981)
* Tasmanian Wilderness (1982, 1989)
* Lord Howe Island Group (1982)
* Central Eastern Rainforest Reserves (Australia) (1986, 1994)
* Uluru-Kata Tjuta National Park (1987, 1994)
* Wet Tropics of Queensland (1988)
* Shark Bay, Western Australia (1991)
* Fraser Island (1992)
* Australian Fossil Mammal Sites (Riversleigh/ Naracote) (1994)
* Heard and McDonald Islands (1997)
* Macquarie Island (1997)
* Greater Blue Mountains Area (2000)
* Purnululu National Park (2003)
* Royal Exhibition Building and Carlton Gardens (2004)

Austria

* Historic Centre of the City of Salzburg (1996)
* Palace and Gardens of Schönbrunn (1996)
* Hallstatt-Dachstein Salzkammergut Cultural Landscape (1997)
* Semmering Railway (1998)
* City of Graz – Historic Centre (1999)
* Wachau Cultural Landscape (2000)
* Historic Centre of Vienna (2001)
* Fertö/Neusiedlersee Cultural Landscape (2001) *

Azerbaijan

* Walled City of Baku with the Shirvanshah’s Palace and Maiden Tower (2000)

Bangladesh

* Historic Mosque City of Bagerhat (1985)
* Ruins of the Buddhist Vihara at Paharpur (1985)
* The Sundarbans (1997)

Belarus

* Belovezhskaya Pushcha / Bia?owie?a Forest (1979, 1992) *
* Mir Castle Complex (2000)

Belgium

* Flemish Béguinages (1998)
* The Four Lifts on the Canal du Centre and their Environs, La Louvière and Le Roeulx (Hainault) (1998)
* Grand-Place, Brussels (1998)
* Belfries of Flanders and Wallonia (1999)
* Major Town Houses of the Architect Victor Horta (Brussels) (2000)
* Neolithic Flint Mines at Spiennes (Mons) (2000)
* Notre-Dame Cathedral in Tournai (2000)
* Historic Centre of Brugge (2000)

Belize

* Belize Barrier-Reef Reserve System (1996)

Benin

* Royal Palaces of Abomey (1985)

Bolivia

* City of Potosi (1987)
* Jesuit Missions of the Chiquitos (1990)
* Historic City of Sucre (1991)
* Fuerte de Samaipata (1998)
* Tiwanaku: Spiritual and Political Centre of the Tiwanaku Culture (2000)
* Noel Kempff Mercado National Park (2000)

Botswana

* Tsodilo (2001)

Brazil

* Historic Town of Ouro Preto (1980)
* Historic Centre of the Town of Olinda (1982)
* Jesuit Missions of the Guaranis: San Ignacio Mini, Santa Ana, Nuestra Señora de Loreto and Santa Maria Mayor (Argentina), Ruins of Sao Miguel das Missoes (Brazil) (1983, 1984) *
* Historic Centre of Salvador de Bahia (1985)
* Sanctuary of Bom Jesus do Congonhas (1985)
* Iguaçu National Park (1986)
* Brasilia (1987)
* Serra da Capivara National Park (1991)
* Historic Centre of São Luis (1997)
* Historic Centre of the Town of Diamantina (1999)
* Discovery Coast Atlantic Forest Reserves (1999)
* Atlantic Forest Southeast Reserves (1999)
* Central Amazon Conservation Complex (2000, 2003)
* Pantanal Conservation Area (2000)
* Brazilian Atlantic Islands: Fernando de Noronha and Atol das Rocas Reserves (2001)
* Cerrado Protected Areas: Chapada dos Veadeiros and Emas National Parks (2001)
* Historic Centre of the Town of Goiás (2001)

Bulgaria

* Boyana Church (1979)
* Madara Rider (1979)
* Thracian Tomb of Kazanlak (1979)
* Rock-hewn Churches of Ivanovo (1979)
* Rila Monastery (1983)
* Ancient City of Nessebar (1983)
* Srebarna Nature Reserve (1983)
* Pirin National Park (1983)
* Thracian Tomb of Sveshtari (1985)

Cambodia

* Angkor (1992)

Cameroon

* Dja Faunal Reserve (1987)

Canada

* Nahanni National Park (1978)
* L?Anse aux Meadows National Historic Site (1978)
* Dinosaur Provincial Park (1979)
* Kluane/Wrangell-St. Elias/Glacier Bay/Tatshenshini-Alsek (1979, 1992, 1994) *
* SGaang Gwaii (Anthony Island) (1981)
* Head-Smashed-In Buffalo Jump (1981)
* Wood Buffalo National Park (1983)
* Canadian Rocky Mountain Parks (1984, 1990)
* Historic District of Québec (1985)
* Gros Morne National Park (1987)
* Waterton Glacier International Peace Park (1995) *
* Old Town Lunenburg (1995)
* Miguasha National Park (1999)

Central African Republic

* Manovo-Gounda St Floris National Park (1988)

Chile

* Rapa Nui National Park (1995)
* Churches of Chiloé (2000)
* Historic Quarter of the Seaport City of Valparaíso (2003)

China

* Mount Taishan (1987)
* The Great Wall (1987)
* Imperial Palaces of the Ming and Qing Dynasties in Beijing and Shenyang (1987, 2004)
* Mogao Caves (1987)
* Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor (1987)
* Peking Man Site at Zhoukoudian (1987)
* Mount Huangshan (1990)
* Jiuzhaigou Valley Scenic and Historic Interest Area (1992)
* Huanglong Scenic and Historic Interest Area (1992)
* Wulingyuan Scenic and Historic Interest Area (1992)
* Mountain Resort and its Outlying Temples, Chengde (1994)
* Temple and Cemetery of Confucius and the Kong Family Mansion in Qufu (1994)
* Ancient Building Complex in the Wudang Mountains (1994)
* Historic Ensemble of the Potala Palace, Lhasa (1994, 2000, 2001)
* Lushan National Park (1996)
* Mount Emei Scenic Area, including Leshan Giant Buddha Scenic Area (1996)
* Old Town of Lijiang (1997)
* Ancient City of Ping Yao (1997)
* Classical Gardens of Suzhou (1997, 2000)
* Summer Palace, an Imperial Garden in Beijing (1998)
* Temple of Heaven: an Imperial Sacrificial Altar in Beijing (1998)
* Mount Wuyi (1999)
* Dazu Rock Carvings (1999)
* Mount Qingcheng and the Dujiangyan Irrigation System (2000)
* Ancient Villages in Southern Anhui – Xidi and Hongcun (2000)
* Longmen Grottoes (2000)
* Imperial Tombs of the Ming and Qing Dynasties (2000, 2003,2004)
* Yungang Grottoes (2001)
* Three Parallel Rivers of Yunnan Protected Areas (2003)
* Capital Cities and Tombs of the Ancient Koguryo Kingdom (2004)

Colombia

* Port, Fortresses and Group of Monuments, Cartagena (1984)
* Los Katios National Park (1994)
* Historic Centre of Santa Cruz de Mompox (1995)
* National Archeological Park of Tierradentro (1995)
* San Agustín Archeological Park (1995)

Costa Rica

* Talamanca Range-La Amistad Reserves / La Amistad National Park (1983, 1990) *
* Cocos Island National Park (1997, 2002)
* Area de Conservación Guanacaste (1999, 2004)

Côte d’Ivoire

* Mount Nimba Strict Nature Reserve (1981, 1982) *
* Taï National Park (1982)
* Comoé National Park (1983)

Croatia

* Old City of Dubrovnik (1979, 1994)
* Historical Complex of Split with the Palace of Diocletian (1979)
* Plitvice Lakes National Park (1979, 2000)
* Episcopal Complex of the Euphrasian Basilica in the Historic Centre of Pore? (1997)
* Historic City of Trogir (1997)
* The Cathedral of St. James in ?ibenik (2000)

Cuba

* Old Havana and its Fortifications (1982)
* Trinidad and the Valley de los Ingenios (1988)
* San Pedro de la Roca Castle, Santiago de Cuba (1997)
* Viñales Valley (1999)
* Desembarco del Granma National Park (1999)
* Archaeological Landscape of the First Coffee Plantations in the Southeast of Cuba (2000)
* Alejandro de Humboldt National Park (2001)

Cyprus

* Paphos (1980)
* Painted Churches in the Troodos Region (1985, 2001)
* Choirokoitia (1998)

Czech Republic

* Historic Centre of Prague (1992)
* Historic Centre of ?eský Krumlov (1992)
* Historic Centre of Tel? (1992)
* Pilgrimage Church of St John of Nepomuk at Zelená Hora (1994)
* Kutná Hora: Historical Town Centre with the Church of St Barbara and the Cathedral of Our Lady at Sedlec (1995)
* Lednice-Valtice Cultural Landscape (1996)
* Gardens and Castle at Krom??í? (1998)
* Hola?ovice Historical Village Reservation (1998)
* Litomy?l Castle (1999)
* Holy Trinity Column in Olomouc (2000)
* Tugendhat Villa in Brno (2001)
* Jewish Quarter and St Procopius’ Basilica in Trebíc (2003)

Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

* Complex of Koguryo Tombs (2004)

Democratic Republic of the Congo

* Virunga National Park (1979)
* Garamba National Park (1980)
* Kahuzi-Biega National Park (1980)
* Salonga National Park (1984)
* Okapi Wildlife Reserve (1996)

Denmark

* Jelling Mounds, Runic Stones and Church (1994)
* Roskilde Cathedral (1995)
* Kronborg Castle (2000)
* Ilulissat Icefjord (2004)

Dominica

* Morne Trois Pitons National Park (1997)

Dominican Republic

* Colonial City of Santo Domingo (1990)

Ecuador

* Galapagos Islands (1978, 2001)
* City of Quito (1978)
* Sangay National Park (1983)
* Historic Centre of Santa Ana de los Ríos de Cuenca (1999)

Egypt

* Memphis and its Necropolis – the Pyramid Fields from Giza to Dahshur (1979)
* Ancient Thebes with its Necropolis (1979)
* Nubian Monuments from Abu Simbel to Philae (1979)
* Islamic Cairo (1979)
* Abu Mena (1979)
* Saint Catherine Area (2002)

El Salvador

* Joya de Ceren Archaeoloical Site (1993)

Estonia

* Historic Centre (Old Town) of Tallinn (1997)

Ethiopia

* Rock-hewn Churches, Lalibela (1978)
* Simien National Park (1978)
* Fasil Ghebbi, Gondar Region (1979)
* Lower Valley of the Awash (1980)
* Tiya (1980)
* Aksum (1980)
* Lower Valley of the Omo (1980)

Finland

* Old Rauma (1991)
* Fortress of Suomenlinna (1991)
* Petäjävesi Old Church (1994)
* Verla Groundwood and Board Mill (1996)
* Bronze Age Burial Site of Sammallahdenmäki (1999)

France

* Mont-Saint-Michel and its Bay (1979)
* Chartres Cathedral (1979)
* Palace and Park of Versailles (1979)
* Vézelay, Church and Hill (1979)
* Decorated Grottoes of the Vézère Valley (1979)
* Palace and Park of Fontainebleau (1981)
* Amiens Cathedral (1981)
* Roman Theatre and its Surroundings and the “Triumphal Arch” of Orange (1981)
* Roman and Romanesque Monuments of Arles (1981)
* Cistercian Abbey of Fontenay (1981)
* Royal Saltworks of Arc-et-Senans (1982)
* Place Stanislas, Place de la Carrière and Place d’Alliance in Nancy (1983)
* Church of Saint-Savin sur Gartempe (1983)
* Cape Girolata, Cape Porto, Scandola Nature Reserve and the Piana Calanches in Corsica (1983)
* Pont du Gard (Roman Aqueduct) (1985)
* Strasbourg – Grande île (1988)
* Paris, Banks of the Seine (1991)
* Cathedral of Notre-Dame, Former Abbey of Saint-Remi and Palace of Tau, Reims (1991)
* Bourges Cathedral (1992)
* Historic Centre of Avignon (1995)
* Canal du Midi (1996)
* Historic Fortified City of Carcassonne (1997)
* Pyrénées – Mont Perdu (1997, 1999) *
* Routes of Santiago de Compostela in France (1998)
* Historic Site of Lyons (1998)
* Jurisdiction of Saint-Emilion (1999)
* Belfries of Flanders and Wallonia (1999)
* The Loire Valley between Sully-sur-Loire and Chalonnes (2000)
* Provins, Town of Medieval Fairs (2001)

Gambia

* James Island and Related Sites (2003)

Georgia

* City-Museum Reserve of Mtskheta (1994)
* Bagrati Cathedral and Gelati Monastery (1994)
* Upper Svaneti (1996)

Germany

* Aachen Cathedral (1978)
* Speyer Cathedral (1981)
* Würzburg Residence with the Court Gardens and Residence Square (1981)
* Pilgrimage Church of Wies (1983)
* Castles of Augustusburg and Falkenlust at Brühl (1984)
* St. Mary’s Cathedral and St. Michael’s Church at Hildesheim (1985)
* Roman Monuments, Cathedral of St. Peter and Church of Our Lady in Trier (1986)
* Hanseatic City of Lübeck (1987)
* Palaces and Parks of Potsdam and Berlin (1990, 1992, 1999)
* Abbey and Altenmünster of Lorsch (1991)
* Mines of Rammelsberg and Historic Town of Goslar (1992)
* Maulbronn Monastery Complex (1993)
* Town of Bamberg (1993)
* Collegiate Church, Castle, and Old Town of Quedlinburg (1994)
* Völklingen Ironworks (1994)
* Messel Pit Fossil Site (1995)
* Cologne Cathedral (1996)
* Bauhaus and its Sites in Weimar and Dessau (1996)
* Luther Memorials in Eisleben and Wittenberg (1996)
* Classical Weimar (1998)
* Museumsinsel (Museum Island), Berlin (1999)
* Wartburg Castle (1999)
* Garden Kingdom of Dessau-Wörlitz (2000)
* Monastic Island of Reichenau (2000)
* Zollverein Coal Mine Industrial Complex in Essen (2001)
* Upper Middle Rhine Valley (2002)
* Historic Centres of Stralsund and Wismar (2002)
* Town Hall and Roland on the Marketplace of Bremen (2004)
* Muskauer Park / Park Muzakowski (2004) *
* Dresden Elbe Valley (2004)

Ghana

* Forts and Castles, Volta Greater Accra, Central and Western Regions (1979)
* Asante Traditional Buildings (1980)

Greece

* Temple of Apollo Epicurius at Bassae (1986)
* Archaeological Site of Delphi (1987)
* Acropolis, Athens (1987)
* Mount Athos (1988)
* Meteora (1988)
* Paleochristian and Byzantine Monuments of Thessalonika (1988)
* Archaeological Site of Epidaurus (1988)
* Medieval City of Rhodes (1988)
* Mystras (1989)
* Archaeological Site of Olympia (1989)
* Delos (1990)
* Monasteries of Daphni, Hossios Luckas and Nea Moni of Chios (1990)
* Pythagoreion and Heraion of Samos (1992)
* Archaeological Site of Vergina (1996)
* Archaeological Sites of Mycenae and Tiryns (1999)
* Historic Centre (Chorá) with the Monastery of Saint John “the Theologian” and the Cave of the Apocalypse on the Island of Pátmos (1999)

Guatemala

* Tikal National Park (1979)
* Antigua Guatemala (1979)
* Archaeological Park and Ruins of Quirigua (1981)

Guinea

* Mount Nimba Strict Nature Reserve (1981, 1982) *

Haiti

* National History Park – Citadel, Sans Souci, Ramiers (1982)

Holy See

* Historic Centre of Rome, the Properties of the Holy See in that City Enjoying Extraterritorial Rights and San Paolo Fuori le Mura (1980, 1990) *
* Vatican City (1984)

Honduras

* Maya Site of Copan (1980)
* Río Plátano Biosphere Reserve (1982)

Hungary

* Budapest, including the Banks of the Danube, the Buda Castle Quarter and Andrássy Avenue (1987, 2002)
* Old Village of Hollókö and its Surroundings (1987)
* Caves of Aggtelek Karst and Slovak Karst (1995, 2000) *
* Millenary Benedictine Abbey of Pannonhalma and its Natural Environment (1996)
* Hortobágy National Park – the Puszta (1999)
* Early Christian Necropolis of Pécs (Sopianae) (2000)
* Fertö/Neusiedlersee Cultural Landscape (2001) *
* Tokaj Wine Region Historic Cultural Landscape (2002)

Iceland

* Þingvellir National Park (2004)

India

* Ajanta Caves (1983)
* Ellora Caves (1983)
* Agra Fort (1983)
* Taj Mahal (1983)
* Sun Temple, Konarak (1984)
* Group of Monuments at Mahabalipuram (1984)
* Kaziranga National Park (1985)
* Manas Wildlife Sanctuary (1985)
* Keoladeo National Park (1985)
* Churches and Convents of Goa (1986)
* Khajuraho Group of Monuments (1986)
* Group of Monuments at Hampi (1986)
* Fatehpur Sikri (1986)
* Group of Monuments at Pattadakal (1987)
* Elephanta Caves (1987)
* Great Living Chola Temples (1987, 2004)
* Sundarbans National Park (1987)
* Nanda Devi National Park (1988)
* Buddhist Monuments at Sanchi (1989)
* Humayun’s Tomb, Delhi (1993)
* Qutb Minar and its Monuments, Delhi (1993)
* Darjeeling Himalayan Railway (DHR) (1999)
* Mahabodhi Temple Complex at Bodh Gaya (2002)
* Rock Shelters of Bhimbetka (2003)
* Champaner-Pavagadh Archaeological Park (2004)
* Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus (formerly Victoria Terminus) (2004)

Indonesia

* Borobudur Temple Compounds (1991)
* Ujung Kulon National Park (1991)
* Komodo National Park (1991)
* Prambanan Temple Compounds (1991)
* Sangiran Early Man Site (1996)
* Lorentz National Park (1999)
* Tropical Rainforest Heritage of Sumatra (2004)

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

* Tchogha Zanbil (1979)
* Persepolis (1979)
* Meidan Emam, Esfahan (1979)
* Takht-e Soleyman (2003)
* Pasargadae (2004)
* Bam and its Cultural Landscape (2004)

Iraq

* Hatra (1985)
* Ashur (Qal’at Sherqat) (2003)

Ireland

* Archaeological Ensemble of the Bend of the Boyne (1993)
* Skellig Michael (1996)

Israel

* Masada (2001)
* Old City of Acre (2001)
* White City of Tel-Aviv — the Modern Movement (2003)

Italy

* Rock Drawings in Valcamonica (1979)
* Historic Centre of Rome, the Properties of the Holy See in that City Enjoying Extraterritorial Rights and San Paolo Fuori le Mura (1980, 1990) *
* Church and Dominican Convent of Santa Maria delle Grazie with “The Last Supper” by Leonardo da Vinci (1980)
* Historic Centre of Florence (1982)
* Venice and its Lagoon (1987)
* Piazza del Duomo, Pisa (1987)
* Historic Centre of San Gimignano (1990)
* I Sassi di Matera (1993)
* City of Vicenza and the Palladian Villas of the Veneto (1994, 1996)
* Historic Centre of Siena (1995)
* Historic Centre of Naples (1995)
* Crespi d’Adda (1995)
* Ferrara, City of the Renaissance, and its Po Delta (1995, 1999)
* Castel del Monte (1996)
* The Trulli of Alberobello (1996)
* Early Christian Monuments of Ravenna (1996)
* Historic Centre of the City of Pienza (1996)
* 18th-Century Royal Palace at Caserta, with the Park, the Aqueduct of Vanvitelli, and the San Leucio Complex (1997)
* Residences of the Royal House of Savoy (1997)
* Botanical Garden (Orto Botanico), Padua (1997)
* Portovenere, Cinque Terre, and the Islands (Palmaria, Tino and Tinetto) (1997)
* Cathedral, Torre Civica and Piazza Grande, Modena (1997)
* Archaeological Areas of Pompei, Herculaneum and Torre Annunziata (1997)
* Costiera Amalfitana (1997)
* Archaeological Area of Agrigento (1997)
* Villa Romana del Casale (1997)
* Su Nuraxi di Barumini (1997)
* Archaeological Area and the Patriarchal Basilica of Aquileia (1998)
* Historic Centre of Urbino (1998)
* Cilento and Vallo di Diano National Park with the Archeological sites of Paestum and Velia, and the Certosa di Padula (1998)
* Villa Adriana (Tivoli) (1999)
* City of Verona (2000)
* Isole Eolie (Aeolian Islands) (2000)
* Assisi, the Basilica of San Francesco and Other Franciscan Sites (2000)
* Villa d’Este, Tivoli (2001)
* Late Baroque Towns of the Val di Noto (South-eastern Sicily) (2002)
* Sacri Monti of Piedmont and Lombardy (2003)
* Val d’Orcia (2004)
* Etruscan Necropolises of Cerveteri and Tarquinia (2004)

Japan

* Buddhist Monuments in the Horyu-ji Area (1993)
* Himeji-jo (1993)
* Yakushima (1993)
* Shirakami-Sanchi (1993)
* Historic Monuments of Ancient Kyoto (Kyoto, Uji and Otsu Cities) (1994)
* Historic Villages of Shirakawa-go and Gokayama (1995)
* Hiroshima Peace Memorial (Genbaku Dome) (1996)
* Itsukushima Shinto Shrine (1996)
* Historic Monuments of Ancient Nara (1998)
* Shrines and Temples of Nikko (1999)
* Gusuku Sites and Related Properties of the Kingdom of Ryukyu (2000)
* Sacred Sites and Pilgrimage Routes in the Kii Mountain Range (2004)

Jerusalem (Site proposed by Jordan)

* Old City of Jerusalem and its Walls (1981)

Jordan

* Petra (1985)
* Quseir Amra (1985)
* Um er-Rasas (Kastrom Mefa’a) (2004)

Kazakhstan

* Mausoleum of Khoja Ahmed Yasawi (2003)
* Petroglyphs within the Archaeological Landscape of Tamgaly (2004)

Kenya

* Mount Kenya National Park / Natural Forest (1997)
* Lake Turkana National Parks (1997, 2001)
* Lamu Old Town (2001)

Lao People’s Democratic Republic

* Town of Luang Prabang (1995)
* Vat Phou and Associated Ancient Settlements within the Champasak Cultural Landscape (2001)

Latvia

* Historic Centre of Riga (1997)

Lebanon

* Anjar (1984)
* Baalbek (1984)
* Byblos (1984)
* Tyre (1984)
* Ouadi Qadisha (the Holy Valley) and the Forest of the Cedars of God (Horsh Arz el-Rab) (1998)

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

* Archaeological Site of Leptis Magna (1982)
* Archaeological Site of Sabratha (1982)
* Archaeological Site of Cyrene (1982)
* Rock-Art Sites of Tadrart Acacus (1985)
* Old Town of Ghadames (1986)

Lithuania

* Vilnius Historic Centre (1994)
* Curonian Spit (2000) *
* Kernav? Archaeological Site (Cultural Reserve of Kernav?) (2004)

Luxembourg

* City of Luxembourg: its Old Quarters and Fortifications (1994)

Madagascar

* Tsingy de Bemaraha Strict Nature Reserve (1990)
* Royal Hill of Ambohimanga (2001)

Malawi

* Lake Malawi National Park (1984)

Malaysia

* Kinabalu Park (2000)
* Gunung Mulu National Park (2000)

Mali

* Old Towns of Djenné (1988)
* Timbuktu (1988)
* Cliff of Bandiagara (Land of the Dogons) (1989)
* Tomb of Askia (2004)

Malta

* Hal Saflieni Hypogeum (1980)
* City of Valletta (1980)
* Megalithic Temples of Malta (1980, 1992)

Mauritania

* Banc d’Arguin National Park (1989)
* Ancient Ksour of Ouadane, Chinguetti, Tichitt and Oualata (1996)

Mexico

* Sian Ka’an (1987)
* Pre-Hispanic City and National Park of Palenque (1987)
* Historic Centre of Mexico City and Xochimilco (1987)
* Pre-Hispanic City of Teotihuacan (1987)
* Historic Centre of Oaxaca and Archaeological Site of Monte Albán (1987)
* Historic Centre of Puebla (1987)
* Historic Town of Guanajuato and Adjacent Mines (1988)
* Pre-Hispanic City of Chichen-Itza (1988)
* Historic Centre of Morelia (1991)
* El Tajin, Pre-Hispanic City (1992)
* Whale Sanctuary of El Vizcaino (1993)
* Historic Centre of Zacatecas (1993)
* Rock Paintings of the Sierra de San Francisco (1993)
* Earliest 16th-Century Monasteries on the Slopes of Popocatepetl (1994)
* Pre-Hispanic Town of Uxmal (1996)
* Historic Monuments Zone of Querétaro (1996)
* Hospicio Cabañas, Guadalajara (1997)
* Archeological Zone of Paquimé, Casas Grandes (1998)
* Historic Monuments Zone of Tlacotalpan (1998)
* Historic Fortified Town of Campeche (1999)
* Archaeological Monuments Zone of Xochicalco (1999)
* Ancient Maya City of Calakmul, Campeche (2002)
* Franciscan Missions in the Sierra Gorda of Querétaro (2003)
* Luis Barragán House and Studio (2004)

Mongolia

* Uvs Nuur Basin (2003) *
* Orkhon Valley Cultural Landscape (2004)

Morocco

* Medina of Fez (1981)
* Medina of Marrakesh (1985)
* Ksar of Ait-Ben-Haddou (1987)
* Historic City of Meknes (1996)
* Archaeological Site of Volubilis (1997)
* Medina of Tétouan (formerly known as Titawin) (1997)
* Medina of Essaouira (formerly Mogador) (2001)
* Portuguese City of Mazagan (El Jadida) (2004)

Mozambique

* Island of Mozambique (1991)

Nepal

* Sagarmatha National Park (1979)
* Kathmandu Valley (1979)
* Royal Chitwan National Park (1984)
* Lumbini, the Birthplace of the Lord Buddha (1997)

Netherlands

* Schokland and Surroundings (1995)
* Defence Line of Amsterdam (1996)
* Mill Network at Kinderdijk-Elshout (1997)
* Historic Area of Willemstad, Inner City and Harbour, Netherlands Antilles (1997)
* Ir.D.F. Woudagemaal (D.F. Wouda Steam Pumping Station) (1998)
* Droogmakerij de Beemster (Beemster Polder) (1999)
* Rietveld Schröderhuis (Rietveld Schröder House) (2000)

New Zealand

* Tongariro National Park (1990, 1993)
* Te Wahipounamu – South West New Zealand (1990)
* New Zealand Sub-Antarctic Islands (1998)

Nicaragua

* Ruins of León Viejo (2000)

Niger

* Air and Ténéré Natural Reserves (1991)
* W National Park of Niger (1996)

Nigeria

* Sukur Cultural Landscape (1999)

Norway

* Urnes Stave Church (1979)
* Bryggen (1979)
* Røros (1980)
* Rock Drawings of Alta (1985)
* Vegaøyan — The Vega Archipelago (2004)

Oman

* Bahla Fort (1987)
* Archaeological Sites of Bat, Al-Khutm and Al-Ayn (1988)
* Arabian Oryx Sanctuary (1994)
* The Frankincense Trail (2000)

Pakistan

* Archaeological Ruins at Moenjodaro (1980)
* Taxila (1980)
* Buddhist Ruins of Takht-i-Bahi and Neighbouring City Remains at Sahr-i-Bahlol (1980)
* Historical Monuments of Thatta (1981)
* Fort and Shalamar Gardens in Lahore (1981)
* Rohtas Fort (1997)

Panama

* Fortifications on the Caribbean Side of Panama: Portobelo-San Lorenzo (1980)
* Darien National Park (1981)
* Talamanca Range-La Amistad Reserves / La Amistad National Park (1983, 1990) *
* Archaeological Site of Panamá Viejo and Historic District of Panamá (1997, 2003)

Paraguay

* Jesuit Missions of La Santisima Trinidad de Parana and Jesus de Tavarangue (1993)

Peru

* City of Cuzco (1983)
* Historic Sanctuary of Machu Picchu (1983)
* Chavin (Archaeological Site) (1985)
* Huascaran National Park (1985)
* Chan Chan Archaelogical Zone (1986)
* Manu National Park (1987)
* Historic Centre of Lima (1988, 1991)
* Rio Abiseo National Park (1990, 1992)
* Lines and Geoglyphs of Nasca and Pampas de Jumana (1994)
* Historical Centre of the City of Arequipa (2000)

Philippines

* Tubbataha Reef Marine Park (1993)
* Baroque Churches of the Philippines (1993)
* Rice Terraces of the Philippine Cordilleras (1995)
* Historic Town of Vigan (1999)
* Puerto-Princesa Subterranean River National Park (1999)

Poland

* Cracow’s Historic Centre (1978)
* Wieliczka Salt Mine (1978)
* Auschwitz Concentration Camp (1979)
* Belovezhskaya Pushcha / Bia?owie?a Forest (1979, 1992) *
* Historic Centre of Warsaw (1980)
* Old City of Zamo?? (1992)
* Medieval Town of Toru? (1997)
* Castle of the Teutonic Order in Malbork (1997)
* Kalwaria Zebrzydowska: the Mannerist Architectural and Park Landscape Complex and Pilgrimage Park (1999)
* Churches of Peace in Jawor and Swidnica (2001)
* Wooden Churches of Southern Little Poland (2003)
* Muskauer Park / Park Muzakowski (2004) *

Portugal

* Central Zone of the Town of Angra do Heroismo in the Azores (1983)
* Monastery of the Hieronymites and Tower of Belem in Lisbon (1983)
* Monastery of Batalha (1983)
* Convent of Christ in Tomar (1983)
* Historic Centre of Evora (1986)
* Monastery of Alcobaça (1989)
* Cultural Landscape of Sintra (1995)
* Historic Centre of Oporto (1996)
* Prehistoric Rock-Art Sites in the Côa Valley (1998)
* Laurisilva of Madeira (1999)
* Historic Centre of Guimarães (2001)
* Alto Douro Wine Region (2001)
* Landscape of the Pico Island Vineyard Culture (2004)

Republic of Korea

* Seokguram Grotto and Bulguksa Temple (1995)
* Haeinsa Temple Janggyeong Panjeon, the Depositories for the Tripitaka Koreana Woodblocks (1995)
* Jongmyo Shrine (1995)
* Changdeokgung Palace Complex (1997)
* Hwaseong Fortress (1997)
* Gyeongju Historic Areas (2000)
* Gochang, Hwasun, and Ganghwa Dolmen Sites (2000)

Romania

* Danube Delta (1991)
* Villages with Fortified Churches in Transylvania (1993, 1999)
* Monastery of Horezu (1993)
* Churches of Moldavia (1993)
* Historic Centre of Sighi?oara (1999)
* Wooden Churches of Maramure? (1999)
* Dacian Fortresses of the Orastie Mountains (1999)

Russian Federation

* Historic Centre of Saint Petersburg and Related Groups of Monuments (1990)
* Kizhi Pogost (1990)
* Kremlin and Red Square, Moscow (1990)
* Historic Monuments of Novgorod and Surroundings (1992)
* Cultural and Historic Ensemble of the Solovetsky Islands (1992)
* White Monuments of Vladimir and Suzdal (1992)
* Architectural Ensemble of the Trinity Sergius Lavra in Sergiev Posad (1993)
* Church of the Ascension, Kolomenskoye (1994)
* Virgin Komi Forests (1995)
* Lake Baikal (1996)
* Volcanoes of Kamchatka (1996, 2001)
* Golden Mountains of Altai (1998)
* Western Caucasus (1999)
* Historic and Architectural Complex of the Kazan Kremlin (2000)
* The Ensemble of Ferrapontov Monastery (2000)
* Curonian Spit (2000) *
* Central Sikhote-Alin (2001)
* Citadel, Ancient City and Fortress Buildings of Derbent (2003)
* Uvs Nuur Basin (2003) *
* Natural System of Wrangel Island Reserve (2004)
* Ensemble of the Novodevichy Convent (2004)

Saint Kitts and Nevis

* Brimstone Hill Fortress National Park (1999)

Saint Lucia

* Pitons Management Area (2004)

Senegal

* Island of Gorée (1978)
* Niokolo-Koba National Park (1981)
* Djoudj National Bird Sanctuary (1981)
* Island of Saint-Louis (2000)

Serbia and Montenegro

* Natural and Culturo-Historical Region of Kotor (1979)
* Stari Ras and Sopo?ani (1979)
* Durmitor National Park (1980)
* Studenica Monastery (1986)
* De?ani Monastery (2004)

Seychelles

* Aldabra Atoll (1982)
* Vallée de Mai Nature Reserve (1983)

Slovakia

* Banská ?tiavnica (1993)
* Spi?ský Hrad and its Associated Cultural Monuments (1993)
* Vlkolínec (1993)
* Caves of Aggtelek Karst and Slovak Karst (1995, 2000) *
* Bardejov Town Conservation Reserve (2000)

Slovenia

* ?kocjan Caves (1986)

Solomon Islands

* East Rennell (1998)

South Africa

* Greater St. Lucia Wetland Park (1999)
* Fossil Hominid Sites of Sterkfontein, Swartkrans, Kromdraai, and Environs (1999)
* Robben Island (1999)
* UKhahlamba / Drakensberg Park (2000)
* Mapungubwe Cultural Landscape (2003)
* Cape Floral Region Protected Areas (2004)

Spain

* Historic Centre of Cordoba (1984, 1994)
* Alhambra, Generalife and Albayzin, Granada (1984, 1994)
* Burgos Cathedral (1984)
* Monastery and Site of the Escurial, Madrid (1984)
* Parque Güell, Palacio Güell and Casa Mila in Barcelona (1984)
* Altamira Cave (1985)
* Old Town of Segovia and its Aqueduct (1985)
* Monuments of Oviedo and the Kingdom of the Asturias (1985, 1998)
* Santiago de Compostela (Old Town) (1985)
* Old Town of Avila with its Extra-Muros Churches (1985)
* Mudejar Architecture of Aragon (1986, 2001)
* Historic City of Toledo (1986)
* Garajonay National Park (1986)
* Old Town of Cáceres (1986)
* Cathedral, Alcazar and Archivo de Indias in Seville (1987)
* Old City of Salamanca (1988)
* Poblet Monastery (1991)
* Archaeological Ensemble of Mérida (1993)
* Royal Monastery of Santa Maria de Guadalupe (1993)
* Route of Santiago de Compostela (1993)
* Doñana National Park (1994)
* Historic Walled Town of Cuenca (1996)
* La Lonja de la Seda de Valencia (1996)
* Pyrénées – Mont Perdu (1997, 1999) *
* Las Médulas (1997)
* The Palau de la Música Catalana and the Hospital de Sant Pau, Barcelona (1997)
* San Millán Yuso and Suso Monasteries (1997)
* Rock-Art of the Mediterranean Basin on the Iberian Peninsula (1998)
* University and Historic Precinct of Alcalá de Henares (1998)
* Ibiza, biodiversity and culture (1999)
* San Cristóbal de La Laguna (1999)
* Archaeological Ensemble of Tárraco (2000)
* Palmeral of Elche (2000)
* Roman Walls of Lugo (2000)
* Catalan Romanesque Churches of the Vall de Boí (2000)
* Archaeological Site of Atapuerca (2000)
* Aranjuez Cultural Landscape (2001)
* Renaissance Monumental Ensembles of Úbeda and Baeza (2003)

Sri Lanka

* Sacred City of Anuradhapura (1982)
* Ancient City of Polonnaruwa (1982)
* Ancient City of Sigiriya (1982)
* Sinharaja Forest Reserve (1988)
* Sacred City of Kandy (1988)
* Old Town of Galle and its Fortifications (1988)
* Golden Temple of Dambulla (1991)

Sudan

* Gebel Barkal and the Sites of the Napatan Region (2003)

Suriname

* Central Suriname Nature Reserve (2000)
* Historic Inner City of Paramaribo (2002)

Sweden

* Royal Domain of Drottningholm (1991)
* Birka and Hovgården (1993)
* Engelsberg Ironworks (1993)
* Rock Carvings in Tanum (1994)
* Skogskyrkogården (1994)
* Hanseatic Town of Visby (1995)
* Church Village of Gammelstad, Luleå (1996)
* Laponian Area (1996)
* Naval Port of Karlskrona (1998)
* High Coast (2000)
* Agricultural Landscape of Southern Öland (2000)
* Mining Area of the Great Copper Mountain in Falun (2001)
* Varberg Radio Station (2004)

Switzerland

* Old City of Berne (1983)
* Convent of St Gall (1983)
* Benedictine Convent of St John at Müstair (1983)
* Three Castles, Defensive Wall and Ramparts of the Market-town of Bellinzone (2000)
* Jungfrau-Aletsch-Bietschhorn (2001)
* Monte San Giorgio (2003)

Syrian Arab Republic

* Ancient City of Damascus (1979)
* Ancient City of Bosra (1980)
* Site of Palmyra (1980)
* Ancient City of Aleppo (1986)

Thailand

* Historic Town of Sukhotai and Associated Historic Towns (1991)
* Historic City of Ayutthaya and Associated Historic Towns (1991)
* Thungyai – Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuaries (1991)
* Ban Chiang Archaeological Site (1992)

the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

* Ohrid Region with its Cultural and Historical Aspect and its Natural Environment (1979, 1980)

Togo

* Koutammakou, the Land of the Batammariba (2004)

Tunisia

* Medina of Tunis (1979)
* Site of Carthage (1979)
* Amphitheatre of El Jem (1979)
* Ichkeul National Park (1980)
* Punic Town of Kerkuane and its Necropolis (1985, 1986)
* Medina of Sousse (1988)
* Kairouan (1988)
* Dougga / Thugga (1997)

Turkey

* Historic Areas of Istanbul (1985)
* Göreme National Park and the Rock Sites of Cappadocia (1985)
* Great Mosque and Hospital of Divrigi (1985)
* Hattusha (1986)
* Nemrut Dag (1987)
* Xanthos-Letoon (1988)
* Hierapolis-Pamukkale (1988)
* City of Safranbolu (1994)
* Archaeological Site of Troy (1998)

Turkmenistan

* State Historical and Cultural Park (1999)

Uganda

* Bwindi Impenetrable National Park (1994)
* Rwenzori Mountains National Park (1994)
* Tombs of Buganda Kings at Kasubi (2001)

Ukraine

* Kiev: Saint-Sophia Cathedral and Related Monastic Buildings, Kiev-Pechersk Lavra (1990)
* L’viv – the Ensemble of the Historic Centre (1998)

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

* Giant’s Causeway and Causeway Coast (1986)
* Durham Castle and Cathedral (1986)
* Ironbridge Gorge (1986)
* Studley Royal Park including the Ruins of Fountains Abbey (1986)
* Stonehenge, Avebury and Associated Sites (1986)
* Castles and Town Walls of King Edward in Gwynedd (1986)
* St. Kilda (1986, 2004)
* Blenheim Palace (1987)
* Westminster Palace, Westminster Abbey and Saint Margaret’s Church (1987)
* City of Bath (1987)
* Hadrian’s Wall (1987)
* Henderson Island (1988)
* Tower of London (1988)
* Canterbury Cathedral, St Augustine’s Abbey, and St Martin’s Church (1988)
* Old and New Towns of Edinburgh (1995)
* Gough and Inaccessible Islands (1995, 2004)
* Maritime Greenwich (1997)
* Heart of Neolithic Orkney (1999)
* Historic Town of St George and Related Fortifications, Bermuda (2000)
* Blaenavon Industrial Landscape (2000)
* Saltaire (2001)
* Dorset and East Devon Coast (2001)
* Derwent Valley Mills (2001)
* New Lanark (2001)
* Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew (2003)
* Liverpool – Maritime Mercantile City (2004)

United Republic of Tanzania

* Ngorongoro Conservation Area (1979)
* Ruins of Kilwa Kisiwani and Ruins of Songo Mnara (1981)
* Serengeti National Park (1981)
* Selous Game Reserve (1982)
* Kilimanjaro National Park (1987)
* Stone Town of Zanzibar (2000)

United States of America

* Mesa Verde (1978)
* Yellowstone (1978)
* Kluane/Wrangell-St. Elias/Glacier Bay/Tatshenshini-Alsek (1979, 1992, 1994) *
* Grand Canyon National Park (1979)
* Everglades National Park (1979)
* Independence Hall (1979)
* Redwood National Park (1980)
* Mammoth Cave National Park (1981)
* Olympic National Park (1981)
* Cahokia Mounds State Historic Site (1982)
* Great Smoky Mountains National Park (1983)
* La Fortaleza and San Juan Historic Site in Puerto Rico (1983)
* Statue of Liberty (1984)
* Yosemite National Park (1984)
* Chaco Culture National Historical Park (1987)
* Hawaii Volcanoes National Park (1987)
* Monticello and the University of Virginia in Charlottesville (1987)
* Pueblo de Taos (1992)
* Waterton Glacier International Peace Park (1995) *
* Carlsbad Caverns National Park (1995)

Uruguay

* Historic Quarter of the City of Colonia del Sacramento (1995)

Uzbekistan

* Itchan Kala (1990)
* Historic Centre of Bukhara (1993)
* Historic Centre of Shakhrisyabz (2000)
* Samarkand – Crossroads of Cultures (2001)

Venezuela

* Coro and its Port (1993)
* Canaima National Park (1994)
* Ciudad Universitaria de Caracas (2000)

Viet Nam

* Complex of Hué Monuments (1993)
* Ha Long Bay (1994, 2000)
* Hoi An Ancient Town (1999)
* My Son Sanctuary (1999)
* Phong Nha-Ke Bang National Park (2003)

Yemen

* Old Walled City of Shibam (1982)
* Old City of Sana’a (1986)
* Historic Town of Zabid (1993)

Zambia

* Mosi-oa-Tunya / Victoria Falls (1989) *

Zimbabwe

* Mana Pools National Park, Sapi and Chewore Safari Areas (1984)
* Great Zimbabwe National Monument (1986)
* Khami Ruins National Monument (1986)
* Mosi-oa-Tunya / Victoria Falls (1989) *
* Matobo Hills (2003)

*: transboundary property

Filed under Categories: World, Heritage

Here is a very interesting analysis of the US housing bubble by Billmon:

If anyone has any lingering doubts that a rather enormous bubble has been inflated in the U.S. housing market — at least in those regions benefiting most from our debt-fueled economy — this news release should put them to rest:

Average U.S. home prices increased 12.5 percent from the first quarter of 2004 through the first quarter of 2005. Appreciation for the most recent quarter was 2.21 percent, or an annualized rate of 8.82 percent. The new data represent the largest four-quarter increase since the third quarter of 2004, when appreciation surpassed any increase in over 25 years.

This exciting news (for real estate speculators anyway) comes to us today courtesy of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight,
the obscure federal agency charged with overseeing (snort) and regulating (giggle)the giant federally chartered mortgage twins not-so-affectionately
known as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — which between them now hold some $1.7 trillion in mortgages or mortgage-backed securities.

The OFHEO’s housing price index is based on transactions — purchases as well as refis — financed by the two mortgage monsters, so it’s reasonably comprehensive. It’s also based on repeat transactions on the same properties, so index changes aren’t artificially inflated or depressed by fluctutations in the average size or quality of homes being purchased — a major flaw in the home price data reported by real
estate cartel (otherwise known as the National Association of Realtors.)

Now 12.5% is a relatively outrageous annual gain — not in the same league as the tech stock bubble of the late ’90s, perhaps, but pretty damned impressive for an asset that doesn’t have even hypothetical earnings growth potential. Awhile back I posted a chart showing the year-over-year change in the national OFHEO index (smoothed over a four-quarter rolling average):

As you can see, prices nationally are now spiraling higher at the fastest rate since the early late ’70s. The chart (and the index) are, however, somewhat misleading, since they are based on nominal values, not real ones — that is, adjusted for inflation. The last time home prices rose this fast, the Consumer Price Index was rising almost as quickly, making home ownership an effective, even necessary, hedge against inflation.
What’s more, for those with fixed-rate mortgages, the return on equity in the late ’70s was downright irresistable, since raging inflation not only pushed mortgage rates into negative territory, but also eroded the real value of the debt even as home prices soared.

Fast forward 25 years or so, and the attractions are not nearly as obvious. Yes, nominal mortgage rates are relatively low, but so is inflation. Home buyers now must accept the fact that the $200,000 they borrow now could still be worth an appreciable fraction of that sum 10 years from now — no
matter what happens to home prices.

And yet these very different inflation dynamics have had no
discernable impact on the willingness of buyers to go up to their
eyeballs in debt in order to purchase the houses of their speculative
dreams. Thus the booming popularity of interest-only loans (or, as we
probably should call them: “future foreclosure loans.”)

Result: Adjusted for inflation, the housing bubble has entered previously unexplored regions of the stratosphere:

Brad Setser has collected some interesting links highlighting what this trend has meant for the U.S. economy. And via Brad Delong, I see that General Glut
has crunched some equally interesting data showing the vast disparities
the housing bubble has created between rental and ownership values, and
among the different regions of the country (i.e. asset mania on both
coasts, relative normality, if not depression, in the industrial
heartland).

It’s easy to imagine ways in which the bubble could burst — as it
eventually must. As always, the most likely scenario involves higher
interest rates, either as a result of a more resolute monetary policy
from the Federal Reserve or a sudden change of direction by our foreign
creditors.

However, it appears we don’t need to worry about those risks just
yet, thanks to the voters in France and the Netherlands. By rejecting
the proposed EU constitution, they have rather abruptly tilted the
financial playing field, making the euro — and, by extension,
euro-denominated assets — look like marginally more risky bets. This,
in turn, has made the dollar and dollar-denominated assets marginally
more attractive to the global speculative class.

The results of this chain reaction, I think, were evident on Wall
Street today, as bond and stock prices both jumped, despite weak
manufacturing data (ordinarily bad news for stocks) and rising oil
prices (bad both for stocks and bonds.) It appears a seismic portfolio shift is under way, one that is sending a little more of Fed governor Ben Bernanke’s “global savings glut” sloshing into the U.S. markets.

As the saying goes, in the land of the blind the one-eyed man is
king, and economically speaking the USA is very much the cyclops on the
throne, squinting out at the world through his one good peeper. Right
now he’s gazing at the remarkable sight of a 10-year Treasury note
yielding less than 4% — this in a country with a hefty budget deficit,
an enormous current account deficit and a personal savings rate too
small to be worth mentioning.

When one considers that the short-term Federal Funds rate is now at
3%, and inflation is running at 2-3%, it’s easy to see the U.S. bond
market is — to use the technical financial term — completely wacked
out, which means the real estate market can go on enjoying its contact
high, at least for a little while longer.

On the other hand, the French and the Dutch probably haven’t done
done us Yanks any big favor, since the eventual bust is likely to be
proportional to the size of the bubble. This, at least, was the
conclusion reached a couple of years ago by the IMF, which looked at
previous housing price bubbles — and crashes — in 14 countries since
1970. The results of the study, and conclusions drawn from it, can be
found here. Some key points:

• What goes up usually comes down.
  Compared to stock prices — which can boom without crashing and crash
  without booming — housing bubbles are much more predictable, with
  rapid price appreciation ending in a crash about 40% of the time.

• Housing slumps last longer.
  On average, it took four years for home prices to hit bottom in the
  crashes studied by the IMF, compared to an average 2.5 years for stock
  market busts. While home prices only fell an average 30% — compared to
  a 60% decline in the average stock market slump, this largely reflected
  the fact that real estate markets tend to “seize up” during crashes, as
  sellers refuse to sell at prices buyers are willing to pay. This limits
  the reported price declines but can cause transactions to dry up almost
  completely. Which may be one reason why:

• Housing crashes do more economic damage. According to the IMF, GDP was 8% lower on average following previous housing busts when compared to the level that would

  have been achieved if pre-bust growth rates had been maintained. That’s
  twice the average economic loss caused by the stock market crashes.

Leaving aside the specific dynamics of the real estate market, it’s
no great surprise that home price busts tend to hurt more and last
longer. Despite the spread of stock ownership, home equity still
accounts for the largest single share of U.S. household net worth –
especially for those not in the charmed circle of the weathiest 1% (or
10%, for that matter.) So it’s equally unsurprising that consumer
spending and credit growth both have tended to fall off more quickly
and more drastically after the popping of real estate bubbles than
stock market bubbles, according to the IMF.

What makes the current situation so alarming is that despite the big run-up in prices many U.S. homeowners don’t have
much home equity — thanks to more aggressive lending standards, the
spread of interest-only loans and the refi consumption binge. So the
crash, when it comes, is going to leave a lot of people deep in the
hole. If experience (Texas 1986, California 1991) is any guide, a lot
of these notional homeowners are going to be tempted to mail in the
keys and let their bankers deal with the problem — a tendency which I
don’t think the recent bankruptcy “reform” legislation will do much curb, although I’m prepared to be corrected on that point.

In any case, anything that causes residential real estate prices to
fall rapidly is obviously problematic for the banking system — not to
mention Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (particularly the former, which
tends to hold more loans on its own balance sheet, as opposed to
securitizing them and passing them off to the suckers, um, I mean, to
the investment community.)

The silver lining to this storm cloud — such as it is — is that
the U.S. economy is less dependent on banks than it used to be, and
much less dependent than either Europe or Japan, thanks to the
financial revolution of the past two decades, which has shifted much of
the credit creation formerly done by banks to the capital markets. The
IMF argues that this should limit the damage done by a U.S. housing
bust, since the losses would be spread much more evenly thoughout the
economy.

This, however, is just another way of saying that the lending risks
formerly concentrated in the banking system have migrated to the
households who own, directly or indirectly, all that debt-backed paper
(such as mortgage securities) being peddled in the capital markets.
Presumably, many of the same households would also see their net worth
reduced by a big decline in home prices. They could, in other words,
get hit by a double or even triple whammy — a nasty side effect of the
inevitable pyramiding effect of disintermediated credit creation.

What’s more, nobody (including Alan Greenspan) really knows how much
of that risk supposedly dispersed via disintermediation has migrated back
to the banks in the form of various esoteric credit derivatives — or
in the loans those same banks have made to hedge funds to speculate in
those same instruments.

In other words, the global financial system can best be described as
an enormous black box, one which may or may not be able to smoothly
absorb the deflation of a record-breaking U.S. housing price bubble.
Again, given past experience, my money would be on the “not.”

We are such stuff as dreams are made on, Shakespeare wrote. One of
these days soon, we may find out whether the same is true of the U.S.
economy.

Filed under Categories: Housing, Bubble, US

The Music Genome Project is a system for breaking down and analyzing music along a proprietary set of attributes that capture not only the musical identity of a song, but also many significant qualities that are relevant to understanding the musical preferences of consumers who browse the material. Each song is analyzed along 400 distinct musical attributes to create a complete musical analysis. The idea is that every individual has unique musical tastes, and that an effective recommendation tool needed to contain a rich enough understanding of music to account for this diversity.

By building products that utilize the wealth of musicological information stored in the Music Genome Project, the technology can be highly responsive to each individual, and allow consumers to easily scan vast catalogues of music to find new songs and artists they will like.

The Music Genome Project is updated on a continual basis with the latest releases, emerging artists, and an ever-deepening collection of catalogue titles.”

Japanese scientists will be using a giant drill ship, to be launched next month, to be the first to punch a hole through the rocky crust that covers our planet and to reach the mantle below.

There have been a number of other projects to drill deep into the Earth’s crust, though none has succeeded in reaching the mantle, as this Japanese team is trying to do. Some of the more well-known ones:

Project Mohole: That was a US team back in 1961 that managed to drill to 183 m below the sea floor, in 3500 m of water off the Mexican coast. From a ship, floating on the ocean surface — I just find that incredible.

As far as land-based projects go, there have been 2 big ones that I know of. The Kola Superdeep Borehole [wikipedia.org] was a Russian project, started in 1970, that drilled at a site on the Kola Peninsula near Finland. Their deepest hole reached 12.262 km in depth, which is the current record. This page has a section (scroll down a few screens) with some very interesting findings from the project. Apparently, geologic theory doesn’t quite correspond with what we find when we actually go down there to see for ourselves.

There’s also the KTB (long German acronym) Borehole, started in 1978 in Bavaria. They reached a depth of 9.101 km. Information on this one is hard to find, at least in English, though there is a great Oilfield Review article (big pdf) available.

This Japanese project is going to drill through the sea floor in the Pacific, in a spot where the crust is thin, which will hopefully allow them to reach the mantle in only 7 km, under 2.5 km of water. For comparison: the previous record seafloor drill was only 2.1 km. So they’ve definitely got their work cut out for them.

A Nepalese couple have exchanged wedding vows on top of Mount Everest, the first people ever to marry there.

They briefly took off their oxygen masks and put on plastic garlands, while the groom symbolically applied red powder on the bride’s forehead.

Moni Mule Pati and Pem Dorjee Sherpa were part of the Rotary Centennial Everest Expedition earlier this week.

A very inspirational post by Mark Cuban in his blog is reproduced below.

“In business, the odds are a little different. It doesnt matter how many times you strike out. In business, to be a success, you only have to be right once.

One single solitary time and you are set for life. That’s the beauty of the business world.

I like to tell the story of how I started my first business at age 12, selling garbage bags. No one ever has asked if I was any good or made money at it. I was, and I did enough to buy some tennis shoes .

I like to tell the story of how I started up a bar, Motley’s Pub when I wasn?t even of legal drinking age the summer before my senior year at Indiana University. No one really asks me how it turned out. It was great until we got busted for letting a 16-year-old win a wet t-shirt contest (I swear I checked her ID, and it was good!).

No one really asks me about my adventures working for Mellon Bank, or Tronics 2000, or trying to start a business selling powdered milk (it was cheaper by the gallon, and I thought it tasted good). They don’t ask me about working as a bartender at night at Elans when I first got to Dallas, or getting fired from my job at Your Business Software for wanting to close a sale rather than sweeping the floor and opening up the store.

No ever asked me about what it was like when I started MicroSolutions and how I used to count the months I was in business, hoping to outlast my previous endeavors and make this one a success.

With every effort, I learned a lot. With every mistake and failure, not only mine, but of those around me, I learned what not to do. I also got to study the success of those I did business with as well. I had more than a healthy dose of fear, and an unlimited amount of hope, and more importantly, no limit on time and effort.

Fortunately, things turned out well for me with MicroSolutions. I sold it after 7 years and made enough money to take time off and have a whole lot of fun.

Back then I can remember vividly people telling me how lucky I was to sell my business at the right time.

Then when I took that money and started trading technology stocks that were in the areas that MIcroSolutions focused on. I remember vividly being told how lucky I was to have expertise in such a hot area, as technology stocks started to trade up.

Of course, no one wanted to comment on how lucky I was to spend time reading software manuals, or Cisco Router manuals, or sitting in my house testing and comparing new technologies, but that’s a topic for another blog post.

The point of all this is that it doesn’t matter how many times you fail. It doesn?t matter how many times you almost get it right. No one is going to know or care about your failures, and either should you. All you have to do is learn from them and those around you because?

All that matters in business is that you get it right once.

Then everyone can tell you how lucky you are.”